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I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
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Last week went pretty well with my top choice, GAJ, racking it up for 134 points. For those new to the forums, each week I will tell you some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and have a guess at their score for this week. From all this, I'll give you my top 5 captain choices for the week. If I have the time (and they're relevant), I'll get to any requests you have too!

The facts:

D. Martin
Last week: 75
Last 3 against Collingwood: 126, 109, 107 (114 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 75, 66, 126 (89 avg)

Pendlebury
Last week: 84
Last 3 against Richmond: 94, 77, 109 (93 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 85, 142, 94 (107 avg)

Gray
Last week: 125
Last 3 against Adelaide: 101, 102, 84 (96 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 125, 93, 82 (100 avg)

Rockliff
Last week: 109
Last 3 against North: 53, 122, 134 (103 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 149, 143, 123 (138 avg)

S. Martin
Last week: 79
Last 3 against North: 96, 94, 113 (101 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 152, 124, 138 (138 avg)

Goldstein
Last week: 121
Last 3 against Brisbane: 103, 153, 100 (119 avg)
Last 3 at Gabba: 103, 100, 72 (92 avg)

Steven
Last week: 123
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 113, 142, 97 (117 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 120, 102, 107 (110 avg)

Armitage
Last week: 105
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 105, 144, 86 (112 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 111, 92, 110 (104 avg)

Fyfe
Last week: 54
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 119, 95, 104 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 108, 76, 103 (96 avg)

Ablett
Last week: 134
Last 3 against Fremantle: 80, 101, 175 (119 avg)
Last 3 at Subi: 118, 80, 89 (96 avg)

Dangerfield
Last week: 137
Last 3 against GWS: 110, 60, 149 (106 avg)
Last 3 at Manuka: N/A

Selwood
Last week: 85
Last 3 against GWS: 106, 140, 132 (126 avg)
Last 3 at Manuka: 106 (106 avg)

Lewis
Last week: 134
Last 3 against West Coast: 114, 92, 118 (108 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 134, 110, 98 (114 avg)

S. Mitchell
Last week: 124
Last 3 against West Coast: 114, 108, 117 (113 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 124, 115, 110 (116 avg)

Priddis
Last week: 137
Last 3 against Hawthorn: 86, 87, 100 (91 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 95, 137, 104 (112 avg)

Gibbs
Last week: 127
Last 3 against Sydney: 118, 77, 119 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 37, 92, 103 (77 avg)

Hannebery
Last week: 76
Last 3 against Carlton: 133, 99, 83 (105 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 133, 93, 116 (114 avg)

Parker
Last week: 135
Last 3 against Carlton: 71, 107, 96 (91 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 120, 128, 119 (122 avg)

T. Mitchell
Last week: 132
Last 3 against Carlton: 110, 7, 89 (69 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 142, 100, 58 (100 avg)

The thoughts:

D. Martin
If  I had to bet on just one premium to bounce back this week, it'd be this guy. Dusty loves to play the Pies, averaging 114 in his last three. Injuries to Deledio and Edwards mean more pressure on Dusty to deliver against a similarly depleted Collingwood midfield. Perfect opportunity for him to score big. Prediction - 120

Pendlebury
This guy gives me a little less confidence. Last week was meant to be huge, given his history against the Swans, but this week looks worrying with a less impressive resume against the Tiges. Be wary. Prediction - 90

Gray
Best on ground against the Saints last week for a nice 125 points, Gray was solid (but not great) in the last two Showdowns. I don't think he'll be amazing but should be serviceable. Prediction - 105

Rockliff
Before last year's injury-affected 53, Rocky's last three on the Roos were 122, 134, and 117. He adores playing at the Gabba and, although he only scored 109 last week, he seems to be your best bet. Prediction - 130

S. Martin
Also adores the Gabba but it's a tough ask to give him the C against Goldstein. Prediction - 100

Goldstein
Goldy showed why he's a top fantasy ruck with his 121 to kick-off the season. Martin could trouble him a little but his record against the Lions says it's not a big issue. Prediction - 120

Steven
Last year, Steven was a perma-captain option and, judging by last week's start, you could say the same this year. Very good against the Bulldogs in his last two and consistently gets tons (often big) at home. Prediction - 125

Armitage
Pretty much Steven junior when it comes to fantasy - will get you tons consistently, will be good at Etihad, just slightly fewer big scores. Still a good option if you have him. Prediction - 115

Fyfe
Potentially hampered by his quad corkie last week but, realistically, Fyfe just didn't rack it up. I'd expect him to bounce back, and the numbers suggest he'll be fine, but I wouldn't put the C near him. Prediction - 100

Ablett
How tempting does that 175 look? Now stop and realise it was 2011. GAJ used to love smashing the Dockers but they have been one of his tougher opponents the last couple of games. Fit and firing, I'd expect him to score well but there are better options this week. Prediction - 115

Dangerfield
Danger has never played at Manuka but, let's be honest, I don't think the ground matters. He's scored big against GWS before with 141 in 2013 and 149 in 2014 so the history's there. If two of last week's behinds were goals, he's scoring 147 and you see a trend here. I'm not going to be as bold as picking a 140 score but there's enough reason to think he'll be huge. Last week was no fluke! Prediction - 130

Selwood
Underdone last week but still played out the whole game for a disappointing but respectable 85. He loves playing the Giants and my gut tells me he lifts another notch against his old team mate, Stevie J. Should bounce back. Prediction - 115

Lewis
Thanks to pommyadam for this one: Lewis averaged 138 in four games without Shiel last year. No Shiel in Round 1 and he scores 134. Add that he's good against the Eagles and that the Hawks are down Hodge too, and you have a recipe for success. Prediction - 130

S. Mitchell
Still the Hawks' best player in my opinion, Sammy Mitchell quietly racked up 124 points last week and now plays the Eagles who he has no trouble scoring against. If you have him, consider! Prediction - 120

Priddis
Just doesn't perform against the Hawks. Stay away. Prediction - 90

Gibbs
If you started with Gibbs, you'll be laughing. 127 last week was way above what he's priced at and he's scored well against the Swans in recent matches. Prediction - 110

Hannebery
76 points with a concussion isn't bad but he still played 76% of the game and he only played 50% TOG! I want to back him in with that tasty 133 against the Blues but it's tough to back someone in coming off a concussion. Prediction - 115

Parker
How good was Luke Parker last week?? Give him one more week before trusting him with the C, as his Carlton history leaves much to be desired, but a fit and healthy Parker is a huge threat to score big. Prediction - 110

T. Mitchell
Tom Mitchell has been released from the sub vest forever and it worked out well in Round 1 with a nice 132. Expect regularly good scores from Mitchell but give him a bit of time before giving him the C, just in case. History against Carlton (ignoring the 7) is decent but nothing special. Prediction - 110

LAHUG'S ROUGHIE OF THE WEEK!

Last week, I was robbed of seeing my roughie play big with Swan's horrific injury. It always sucks to see a superstar go down and I'm hoping that's the last big injury we'll see for a while. In this segment, I'll talk about someone that, partly because of stats and mostly because of gut feeling, I think will go huge this week. It'll usually be somebody that you wouldn't usually give the C to but, if you have him and are feeling brave, might be worth a look.

Ebert
Last week: 124
Last 3 against Adelaide: 97, 139, 98 (111 avg)
Last 3 at AO: 124, 115, 78 (106 avg)

Last year, Ebert started the season with 163, 100, 111, 81, 139, 100. The year before he had 100, 127, 91, 152, 125, 112. Ebert starts strong each year before quietening down. His two Showdowns in those periods? 127 and 139. Lock him in if you have him. Gutsy Prediction - 135

LAHUG'S POTATO FORECAST!

As a Tigers supporter, it hurt to be right about Dusty last week. As a Fantasy writer, I loved it! Basically, I'll highlight a premium that is probably in plenty of teams but is both down on form and has some terrible history against this week's opponent. Get ready for a shocker of a score!

J.P. Kennedy
Last week: 63
Last 3 against Carlton: 80, 130, 86 (99 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 134, 92, 139 (122 avg)

Now, before you tell me how great those Etihad scores look and highlight that big 130, hear me out. JPK score a dismal 63 last week because, frankly, he didn't need to do more. His young team won the game themselves against a Collingwood team that, although pretty average, are still better than the Blues. My gut tells me that he'll take a back seat yet again as his team easily dismantles Carlton. That means another low score. Spudiction - 65

The verdict:
1.   Lewis (130)
(http://nnimgt-a.akamaihd.net/transform/v1/crop/frm/eXRxhwGAaSf9usWYHgjq9K/35bc1c80-9bfc-4058-ad9a-5474b1b84c90.jpg/r0_40_2000_1542_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
2.   Rockliff (130)
3.   Dangerfield (130)
4.   Steven (125)
5.   S. Mitchell (120)

Requests:

Neale   - Requested by GoLions
Last week: 106   
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 109, 57 (83 avg)   
Last 3 at Subi: 123, 78, 147 (116 avg)   

Only having played the Suns twice makes it a bit harder to get a good read on Neale. He was solid for 106 last week in a game where most of his team mates were quiet. You'd expect the Dockers to be better this week but does that necessarily mean he'll improve. Prediction - 110

Adams   - Requested by Money
Last week: 95   
Last 3 against Richmond: 102, 67, 111 (93 avg)   
Last 3 at MCG: 127, 135, 102 (121 avg)   

Solid in two of his last three against the Tigers and finished last year scoring very well at the MCG. However, can you back Adams after a 95 in round 1 and, frankly, very little history to warrant the captaincy? He had 6 scores over 125 last year but I'm not backing him until I see consistency. He could struggle if the Pies struggle without key mids. Prediction - 100

Viney   - Requested by oc16
Last week: 115   
Last 3 against Essendon: 55, 108, 59 (74 avg)   
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 49, 102 (89 avg)   

6 players scored 100+ against the Bombers last week with the highest being Ablett on 134. Ceilings vs. Essendon will be higher than that because GAJ and the Suns took the foot off the gas but, at the same time, GAJ is a much more proven Fantasy scorer than Viney. There's every reason to think Viney will comfortably break 100 but by how much? Prediction - 110

Ward   - Requested by henry
Last week: 110   
Last 3 against Geelong: 76, 111, 107 (98 avg)   
Last 3 at Manuka: 76, 122, 105 (101 avg)   

Ward averaged a handy 101 in his three games in Canberra last year but the one vs. Geelong saw him only score 76. His 110 last week was also a great start but he had 2 goals 2 behinds helping his score. With how much Geelong slowed Hawthorn's scoring last week, I can't see Ward getting those goals. I'd stay away this week. Prediction - 90

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I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

Love ya work Huggy

Rocky locked in. Could I make a request for Neale? :)

Quote from: GoLions on March 31, 2016, 12:16:02 AM
Love ya work Huggy

Rocky locked in. Could I make a request for Neale? :)

Gonna go to bed shortly but, barring anything crazy, I'll have time for requests tomorrow :)

Looks good mate cheers!

Love the look of Dusty, always love the idea of someone bouncing back, but cant ignore Rocky there  8)

Looking at those stats Dusty could be a sneaky POD captain! Also considering Adams, who i would like to request if you have the time please  :)

Steven locked in as perma captain every week until further notice

Great work as always Huggy

Quote from: Money on March 31, 2016, 12:53:20 AM
Looking at those stats Dusty could be a sneaky POD captain! Also considering Adams, who i would like to request if you have the time please  :)

I'd love to make Dusty my captain but I don't even have him because I wisely chose Aaron Hall instead of... oh who am I kidding I picked bloody Robinson :(

And yeah, requests tomorrow I hope.

Quote from: LaHug on March 31, 2016, 01:03:24 AM

Quote from: Money on March 31, 2016, 12:53:20 AM
Looking at those stats Dusty could be a sneaky POD captain! Also considering Adams, who i would like to request if you have the time please  :)

I'd love to make Dusty my captain but I don't even have him because I wisely chose Aaron Hall instead of... oh who am I kidding I picked bloody Robinson :(

And yeah, requests tomorrow I hope.

I'm glad I was able to hold off the temptation to go Robbo! Didn't get the best Dusty R1 but now I'm not chasing him

Love ya work!!

Rocky for me  8)

Hey LaHug,
Cheers for all ur posts over the years!
My request is for u to do Viney, I think he will go big this week.

Neale   - Requested by GoLions
Last week: 106   
Last 3 against Gold Coast: 109, 57 (83 avg)   
Last 3 at Subi: 123, 78, 147 (116 avg)   

Only having played the Suns twice makes it a bit harder to get a good read on Neale. He was solid for 106 last week in a game where most of his team mates were quiet. You'd expect the Dockers to be better this week but does that necessarily mean he'll improve? Like him at Subi but not enough history to suggest a big one. Prediction - 110

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I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

Cheers Huggy! :D

Adams   - Requested by Money
Last week: 95   
Last 3 against Richmond: 102, 67, 111 (93 avg)   
Last 3 at MCG: 127, 135, 102 (121 avg)   

Solid in two of his last three against the Tigers and finished last year scoring very well at the MCG. However, can you back Adams after a 95 in round 1 and, frankly, very little history to warrant the captaincy? He had 6 scores over 125 last year but I'm not backing him until I see consistency. He could struggle if the Pies struggle without key mids. Prediction - 100

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I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

Cheers Mate!!!!! Got some thinking to do!!

Could you have a look at my man Ward please Huggy? 3rd year in a row starting him  :P, worked well for me last week.

Will go GAJ in RDT but don't have him in AF so will go Rocky I think. I went with Danger last week which worked beautifully but think his stinkers are worse than Rockys with a bit of uncertainity.

Viney   - Requested by oc16
Last week: 115   
Last 3 against Essendon: 55, 108, 59 (74 avg)   
Last 3 at MCG: 115, 49, 102 (89 avg)   

6 players scored 100+ against the Bombers last week with the highest being Ablett on 134. Ceilings vs. Essendon will be higher than that because GAJ and the Suns took the foot off the gas but, at the same time, GAJ is a much more proven Fantasy scorer than Viney. There's every reason to think Viney will comfortably break 100 but by how much? Prediction - 110

---

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

Ward   - Requested by henry
Last week: 110   
Last 3 against Geelong: 76, 111, 107 (98 avg)   
Last 3 at Manuka: 76, 122, 105 (101 avg)   

Ward averaged a handy 101 in his three games in Canberra last year but the one vs. Geelong saw him only score 76. His 110 last week was also a great start but he had 2 goals 2 behinds helping his score. With how much Geelong slowed Hawthorn's scoring last week, I can't see Ward getting those goals. I'd stay away this week. Prediction - 90

---

I've been doing this for 6 years now and asked for nothing in return. This year, I would like to share with you my fundraising efforts for Cancer Council Victoria. If you appreciate these weekly posts, please consider donating to my cause, sharing to raise awareness, or starting the conversation about health, wellbeing, and knowing your body with your family and friends. Any donation, big or small, will help immensely.
Please follow this link: https://my-own-way-2016.everydayhero.com/au/william-huggett

Hanners played a cheeky 50.1% TOG, not 76%.

Quote from: Cheeky_Picks on March 31, 2016, 11:10:13 PM
Hanners played a cheeky 50.1% TOG, not 76%.

My mistake! Was looking at the wrong column in the scores. Will update now! Good pick up.

Quote from: henry on March 31, 2016, 09:53:55 PM
I went with Danger last week which worked beautifully but think his stinkers are worse than Rockys with a bit of uncertainity.

Danger was one of 9 people in the AFL who scored over 70DT in all his games last year (and played 20 or more)

the complete list:
Pendles, Ward, Steven, Hannebery, Priddis, Dangerfield, Goldstein, Armitage, Smartin

anyone else captain rocky? :(

Quote from: colmullet on April 02, 2016, 06:42:05 PM
anyone else captain rocky? :(

Yep! :'(

Yeah I have him C in AF. I have gone Steven in DT but still have him there and his 30

Quote from: colmullet on April 02, 2016, 06:42:05 PM
anyone else captain rocky? :(

WTF happened? Didn't see the game... Captained Danger at the last minute luckily...

Calf injury, but not sure how bad the damage is.... has he had previous calf injuries, or was his history been more hammies?

Ive gone T Mitchell to captain against the blues, almost went with Gablett, so hoping Tommy as a POD will pay off! (Only 5% of teams have him)

Quote from: colmullet on April 02, 2016, 06:42:05 PM
anyone else captain rocky? :(

Nope!

Went Goldy >:(

Just an awful week for players expected to score huge. Looks like a the Sydney boys and Sammy Mitchell will have to be serious options each week from now on.

Quote from: LaHug on April 03, 2016, 10:43:59 PM
Just an awful week for players expected to score huge. Looks like a the Sydney boys and Sammy Mitchell will have to be serious options each week from now on.

as someone that put their C on JPK in rd1, I can say that that's a bad idea

Quote from: colmullet on April 02, 2016, 06:42:05 PM
anyone else captain rocky? :(

Yep, and in DT as well :'(

Quote from: Rusty00 on April 04, 2016, 12:29:15 PM

Quote from: colmullet on April 02, 2016, 06:42:05 PM
anyone else captain rocky? :(

Yep, and in DT as well :'(

Turned what wouldve been a below average score into an absolute stinker for me

Quote from: pommyadam on April 04, 2016, 10:34:24 AM

Quote from: LaHug on April 03, 2016, 10:43:59 PM
Just an awful week for players expected to score huge. Looks like a the Sydney boys and Sammy Mitchell will have to be serious options each week from now on.

as someone that put their C on JPK in rd1, I can say that that's a bad idea

Maybe the secret is just to not captain anyone?

I think I'll put my C on whoever averages the most

welcome to the captaincy, Darcy Parish! :P