Is anyone else considering going light or having a POD in the ruck this season?
All pre-season i have had the goldstein/maric combination however am unsure if i want to spend all this cash here. Also due to the new ruck rules im really not sure who is going to perform and who is going to leak money. Not to mention there are some cheaper options going around. I know everyone is talking about the berger but there is also Lycett, grundy, witts, longer, blicavs, witts, wood, hale, bellchambers or zac smith. Even acye cordy looked ok in pre season comp and he is just over 200K To me these are all viable options.
Anyone considering these lower price players??
Lot of those players are + or - $400k so don't see spending that much on them to wise , the really cheap ones well you just have to expect to chow down on some really low scores
Quote from: bkp130 on March 30, 2015, 07:05:05 AM
Is anyone else considering going light or having a POD in the ruck this season?
All pre-season i have had the goldstein/maric combination however am unsure if i want to spend all this cash here. Also due to the new ruck rules im really not sure who is going to perform and who is going to leak money. Not to mention there are some cheaper options going around. I know everyone is talking about the berger but there is also Lycett, grundy, witts, longer, blicavs, witts, wood, hale, bellchambers or zac smith. Even acye cordy looked ok in pre season comp and he is just over 200K To me these are all viable options.
Anyone considering these lower price players??
I'm going relatively light with Nic Nat and Berger with Bellchambers at F4 (pending Asada) as cover.
Quote from: Hagebear on March 30, 2015, 07:51:06 AM
Quote from: bkp130 on March 30, 2015, 07:05:05 AM
Is anyone else considering going light or having a POD in the ruck this season?
All pre-season i have had the goldstein/maric combination however am unsure if i want to spend all this cash here. Also due to the new ruck rules im really not sure who is going to perform and who is going to leak money. Not to mention there are some cheaper options going around. I know everyone is talking about the berger but there is also Lycett, grundy, witts, longer, blicavs, witts, wood, hale, bellchambers or zac smith. Even acye cordy looked ok in pre season comp and he is just over 200K To me these are all viable options.
Anyone considering these lower price players??
Im thinking the same thing at the moment. Glad the ASADA verdict comes out ommorow give me 3 days to work out the belly situation. How do you think giles will affect his scoring?
I'm going relatively light with Nic Nat and Berger with Bellchambers at F4 (pending Asada) as cover.
Most of those blokes are those prices for a reason
Indeed but im thinking there may be a diamond in the rough somewhere. Just have to pick the right one
Quote from: bkp130 on March 30, 2015, 08:18:42 AM
Indeed but im thinking there may be a diamond in the rough somewhere. Just have to pick the right one
To find a value pick, you have to find someone moving to number 1 ruck. Otherwise only 1 in 10 will rise significantly.
But, if do identify someone who wasn't number 1 before, but now is, then they are certainly worth picking. Being number 1 ruck makes all the difference.
Personally im thinking Cameron Wood. Averaged 90 in the NAB cup from 2 games amd did just get elevated. If he can hold out Warnock and With Kruzer being injury prone could work. Massive risk i know especially with berger cheaper.
Quote from: bkp130 on March 30, 2015, 11:53:51 AM
Personally im thinking Cameron Wood. Averaged 90 in the NAB cup from 2 games amd did just get elevated. If he can hold out Warnock and With Kruzer being injury prone could work. Massive risk i know especially with berger cheaper.
I'd pick Wood if he was 200k
No chance at his price though
Yeah I think that could be a good point. Ayce Cordy intrigues me. 66 Average from 2 games in the pre-season and only 220K. JS worrys me a lot though
Zac Smith might be a bit of a bolter for a 90 or so avg this year
Could be a Go as well. So many options. Finding it really hard this year
NaitBurger is the cheapest I go pre ASADA, swap in Belly if the players get off. No way will I go cheaper.
Yeah Belly I am Really keen on however really want the ASADA thing to be sorted. At least we should know come tommorow.
With limited cover, this is the year to set and forget mate.
Thats the other side of the argument that i was toying with though. Set and forget is all well and good. But who will be the top 5 ruckman. To me its just a guess and dont want to have to make too many corrective trades early. If i was going set and forget it would be Goldstein and Maric as the others are too expensive for me but you never know.
So hard in the rucks.
Quote from: bkp130 on March 30, 2015, 12:39:40 PM
Thats the other side of the argument that i was toying with though. Set and forget is all well and good. But who will be the top 5 ruckman. To me its just a guess and dont want to have to make too many corrective trades early. If i was going set and forget it would be Goldstein and Maric as the others are too expensive for me but you never know.
So hard in the rucks.
Yep you're exactly right. No idea how guys like 211, Maric, Lobbe, Ryder and Minson are going to go.
I've just forked out the extra cash and gone with the Goldsauce combo :)
Massive amount of cash but probably the best combofor this season. Must be weak in one other line?
Quote from: bkp130 on March 30, 2015, 12:50:57 PM
Massive amount of cash but probably the best combofor this season. Must be weak in one other line?
Swallow M4 and Salem F5 are probably my weak links. Think it can work though.
sounds pretty good. I also have salem at F5. M4 for me at the moment is Bontompelli so you are doing better than me. Currently rucks are Goldstein and Mraic and have 20K left over.
Goldy Nic Nat will be the most popular combo I think, everyone hoping its a set and forget!
could somebody please tell me the % of ownership for Stefan Martin
Cheers
this is the way I'm rolling, cos I'm predicting a price fall for all ruckmen this season. So I see all ruckmen as upgrade targets. If ruckmen need to get more ball around the field to score well, then rucks like Goldy are gunna be cheap, come midseason. IMO some will drop 100k. I will be starting another premo mid instead.
I could be wrong, But if I'm right, I see an advantage to be had.
Quote from: kilbluff1985 on March 30, 2015, 05:17:28 PM
could somebody please tell me the % of ownership for Stefan Martin
Cheers
2.36%
Quote from: frenzy on March 30, 2015, 06:40:06 PM
this is the way I'm rolling, cos I'm predicting a price fall for all ruckmen this season. So I see all ruckmen as upgrade targets. If ruckmen need to get more ball around the field to score well, then rucks like Goldy are gunna be cheap, come midseason. IMO some will drop 100k. I will be starting another premo mid instead.
I could be wrong, But if I'm right, I see an advantage to be had.
Im thinking the same thing mate. Who are you running with at the moment
Quote from: bkp130 on March 30, 2015, 06:43:22 PM
Quote from: frenzy on March 30, 2015, 06:40:06 PM
this is the way I'm rolling, cos I'm predicting a price fall for all ruckmen this season. So I see all ruckmen as upgrade targets. If ruckmen need to get more ball around the field to score well, then rucks like Goldy are gunna be cheap, come midseason. IMO some will drop 100k. I will be starting another premo mid instead.
I could be wrong, But if I'm right, I see an advantage to be had.
Im thinking the same thing mate. Who are you running with at the moment
I agree with this. Money saved in the RUC line will be better spent beefing up other lines (e.g. I have Wines at M6, Simpson & Shaw as D1/D2).
Take this how you want but I've done 3 bits of personal analysis that may be helpful:
1) Top 10 rucks are overpricedThe new scoring system means you need to have a hit-to-adv % of 33.33% in order to break even on hit outs. According to Fantasy Freako top 5 rucks for hit-to-adv % since 2012 (min 25 gms) are below:
Hampson (32.2%) - not SC relevant
Jacobs (31.9%) - ave down 1.3% (approx. $8K)
Maric (28.5%) - ave down 3.7% (approx. $20K)
Goldy (28.3) - ave down 4.9% (approx. $30K)
Nic Nat (27.5) - ave down 4.2% (approx. $20K)
Not quite the end of the world, but remember these are the top 5 rucks... my hunch is that the average for all RUCs sits in between 23%-26% which means someone like Mumford could be overpriced by $40K-$60K... assuming all things remain equal between 2014/15
2) Based on NAB data - the correlation between HOs and SC score has weakenedIn 2014 the coefficient was 0.722 but based on NAB data it is 0.472. There is still a positive relationship but not as significant as before (note: 1 = perfect correlation).
Interestingly Contested Possessions, Kicks and Handballs still have a higher correlation than HOs in both 2014 and 2015, however in 2015 Goals, Marks and Tackles now have a stronger correlation with SC scores than HOs So those RUC who rely less on HO to generate points will be least affected by the rule change.
3) Based on NAB data and 2014 output - it's predicted only 4 RUC will average more than 100 pointsI've built a predictive model based on NAB ruck data (n = 92). By no means is this perfect due to small sample and skewed input data, R-square is 83.2% and it predicted the below scores of the last three NAB games (actual in brackets)
Mummy - 84 (71)
Pyke - 68 (62)
C.Wood - 90 (86)
Rowe - 50 (52)
Blicavs - 85 (92)
M.Clark - 92 (95)
Simpson - 55 (51)
Lycett - 51 (53)
NicNat - 67 (66)
Sandi - 45 (58)
Z.Clarke - 82 (71)
From this I punched in 2014's stats and below is an APPROXIMATE prediction (+/- 5-10 points) of 2015 RUC scores and a ballpark of how much they stand to lose
S.Mart - 105.9 (-$31k)
Sauce - 104.2 (-$60K)
Mummy - 102.1 (-$65K)
Sandi - 102.0 (-$32K)
Goldy - 97.0 (-$53K)
Ryder - 94.1 (-$38K)
Maric - 90.9 (-$47K)
Lobbe - 90.4 (-$55K)
Nic Nat - 88.4 (-$12K)
Minson - 87.2 (-$32K)
SO... what's this all mean...
I've wasted far too much time tonight. Take this with a grain of salt - just as NAB performances are not always representative of actual games neither is the input data that informed the above.
That said, it gives me enough confidence to go with Lycett and TBC (pending ASADA) as these guys are actually predicted to make cash (not much) and my gut tells me their output is set to increase this year (Lycett due to natural progression, TBC due to health and being #1)
Will both be keepers? Maybe Lycett as F6 (hopefully F7) by season's end but who knows. If for no other reason I have to go light in my RUC just to see how wrong I am
Could not give two showers and a pull of a dog's dick how premos go in the NAB
Goldy struggled first half of last year with shoulder injury and North not playing him as sole ruck. Averaged like close to 120 or something ridiculous once he was 100% and sole ruck. So taking into account that rucks will take a hit in scoring, but that Goldy would've been under-priced before the scoring changes, he's priced at around what he'll score pretty much.
NicNat can avg 110 or so if fully fit and firing, priced way under that, so could increase in price easily.
Minson had a shower year, if he gets back to his 2013 form will increase.
Maric could increase slightly.
Mummy is Mummy, Jacobs has good enough HTA numbers. Sandi is still a beast.
Unless Belly is able to play round 1, I'm going set and forget in the rucks. And even then I may make him F3 instead and go Maric to Sauce.