Been thinking about this for a while now since there aren't many lock great premium backs it's a bit less of a risk to have a few more mid priced backs and then load up a bit more in forwards and mids. Currently my back starting 6 is:
Shaw, Newnes, Savage, Ibbotson, Whitecross & N. Brown. Is this too weak of a backline? I'm thinking 4 possible keepers by years end if all fall in to place.
There are plenty of threads around discussing the backline and mid options ;)
I think that backline is way too weak. Lets see how Savage, Ibbo and Newnes look during the NAB, and Brown has to be on the bench if you're picking him
People keep saying there's no lock premium backs but I don't really see it. Plenty of value. It just means that with the removal of these midfield "defenders" we won't see those 100+ averages. Except for maybe Malceski.
Expect your top defenders to be 90-100.
Quote from: DaveElNacho on February 26, 2015, 10:32:54 PM
People keep saying there's no lock premium backs but I don't really see it. Plenty of value. It just means that with the removal of these midfield "defenders" we won't see those 100+ averages. Except for maybe Malceski.
Expect your top defenders to be 90-100.
Yes, there are plenty of lock-ins for a 90+ average. But since there aren't any 100+, if you can get a mid-pricer that averages 85 that should be enough to be a keeper, because it's only 5ppg off premium status, not 15.
WhiteX and Brown at D5/D6 is too weak IMO.
Need to bring in another premo/mid pricer to move WhiteX to D6 at least.
Quote from: H1bb3i2d on February 27, 2015, 11:35:25 AM
Quote from: DaveElNacho on February 26, 2015, 10:32:54 PM
People keep saying there's no lock premium backs but I don't really see it. Plenty of value. It just means that with the removal of these midfield "defenders" we won't see those 100+ averages. Except for maybe Malceski.
Expect your top defenders to be 90-100.
Yes, there are plenty of lock-ins for a 90+ average. But since there aren't any 100+, if you can get a mid-pricer that averages 85 that should be enough to be a keeper, because it's only 5ppg off premium status, not 15.
hadn't really looked at it like that actually. but still playing with fire having that many midpricers. just as the premo backs will hit the 95 mark, 85 will still be solid. equivalent to say 105 in the mid. don't think it will be easy for all of these midpricers to hit that.
Quote from: DaveElNacho on February 27, 2015, 10:33:48 PM
Quote from: H1bb3i2d on February 27, 2015, 11:35:25 AM
Quote from: DaveElNacho on February 26, 2015, 10:32:54 PM
People keep saying there's no lock premium backs but I don't really see it. Plenty of value. It just means that with the removal of these midfield "defenders" we won't see those 100+ averages. Except for maybe Malceski.
Expect your top defenders to be 90-100.
Yes, there are plenty of lock-ins for a 90+ average. But since there aren't any 100+, if you can get a mid-pricer that averages 85 that should be enough to be a keeper, because it's only 5ppg off premium status, not 15.
hadn't really looked at it like that actually. but still playing with fire having that many midpricers. just as the premo backs will hit the 95 mark, 85 will still be solid. equivalent to say 105 in the mid. don't think it will be easy for all of these midpricers to hit that.
Yeah of course not! But it's compounded by the lack of rookies, so mid-pricers are really the only way not to spend overs down back. Some strategies are downright ludicrous, I'll only start 1 (maybe 2 if someone can prove they deserve a spot in my side) midpricers there myself.
Quote from: H1bb3i2d on February 27, 2015, 11:35:25 AM
Quote from: DaveElNacho on February 26, 2015, 10:32:54 PM
People keep saying there's no lock premium backs but I don't really see it. Plenty of value. It just means that with the removal of these midfield "defenders" we won't see those 100+ averages. Except for maybe Malceski.
Expect your top defenders to be 90-100.
Yes, there are plenty of lock-ins for a 90+ average. But since there aren't any 100+, if you can get a mid-pricer that averages 85 that should be enough to be a keeper, because it's only 5ppg off premium status, not 15.
I would just like to know who the lock ins for a 90+ average are.
I am actually not convinced with anyone.
Malceski new team - some doubts there
Simpson - proven but aging
Burgoyne - can actually see him going 90 but feel like could be rested at times given Hawks depth
Smith - one season more attention likely - doubts
Shaw - I see 90 here
Gibson - kpp is frawley doubts
Hodge - 90+ but does get odd injury
Hibberd - asada issues
Jaensch - just not convinced
Enlight - old
Birchall - injury preseason can be tagged
Kelly - can get it but often wasteful
Quote from: eaglesman on February 27, 2015, 11:02:36 PM
Quote from: H1bb3i2d on February 27, 2015, 11:35:25 AM
Quote from: DaveElNacho on February 26, 2015, 10:32:54 PM
People keep saying there's no lock premium backs but I don't really see it. Plenty of value. It just means that with the removal of these midfield "defenders" we won't see those 100+ averages. Except for maybe Malceski.
Expect your top defenders to be 90-100.
Yes, there are plenty of lock-ins for a 90+ average. But since there aren't any 100+, if you can get a mid-pricer that averages 85 that should be enough to be a keeper, because it's only 5ppg off premium status, not 15.
I would just like to know who the lock ins for a 90+ average are.
I am actually not convinced with anyone.
Malceski new team - some doubts there
Simpson - proven but aging
Burgoyne - can actually see him going 90 but feel like could be rested at times given Hawks depth
Smith - one season more attention likely - doubts
Shaw - I see 90 here
Gibson - kpp is frawley doubts
Hodge - 90+ but does get odd injury
Hibberd - asada issues
Jaensch - just not convinced
Enlight - old
Birchall - injury preseason can be tagged
Kelly - can get it but often wasteful
Eski, Simpson, Shaw, Hibberd, Hurn, Smith, Hodge, Burgoyne and maybe Birchall I would back to go 90+ without injury
Quote from: GoLions on February 27, 2015, 11:17:13 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on February 27, 2015, 11:02:36 PM
Quote from: H1bb3i2d on February 27, 2015, 11:35:25 AM
Quote from: DaveElNacho on February 26, 2015, 10:32:54 PM
People keep saying there's no lock premium backs but I don't really see it. Plenty of value. It just means that with the removal of these midfield "defenders" we won't see those 100+ averages. Except for maybe Malceski.
Expect your top defenders to be 90-100.
Yes, there are plenty of lock-ins for a 90+ average. But since there aren't any 100+, if you can get a mid-pricer that averages 85 that should be enough to be a keeper, because it's only 5ppg off premium status, not 15.
I would just like to know who the lock ins for a 90+ average are.
I am actually not convinced with anyone.
Malceski new team - some doubts there
Simpson - proven but aging
Burgoyne - can actually see him going 90 but feel like could be rested at times given Hawks depth
Smith - one season more attention likely - doubts
Shaw - I see 90 here
Gibson - kpp is frawley doubts
Hodge - 90+ but does get odd injury
Hibberd - asada issues
Jaensch - just not convinced
Enlight - old
Birchall - injury preseason can be tagged
Kelly - can get it but often wasteful
Eski, Simpson, Shaw, Hibberd, Hurn, Smith, Hodge, Burgoyne and maybe Birchall I would back to go 90+ without injury
Ok, maybe locks wasn't the right word, but at least the top 6 of them will go 90+. It was more about considering how many points having someone averaging 85 would lose, and it's not many at all.
Quote from: H1bb3i2d on February 28, 2015, 11:16:49 AM
Quote from: GoLions on February 27, 2015, 11:17:13 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on February 27, 2015, 11:02:36 PM
Quote from: H1bb3i2d on February 27, 2015, 11:35:25 AM
Quote from: DaveElNacho on February 26, 2015, 10:32:54 PM
People keep saying there's no lock premium backs but I don't really see it. Plenty of value. It just means that with the removal of these midfield "defenders" we won't see those 100+ averages. Except for maybe Malceski.
Expect your top defenders to be 90-100.
Yes, there are plenty of lock-ins for a 90+ average. But since there aren't any 100+, if you can get a mid-pricer that averages 85 that should be enough to be a keeper, because it's only 5ppg off premium status, not 15.
I would just like to know who the lock ins for a 90+ average are.
I am actually not convinced with anyone.
Malceski new team - some doubts there
Simpson - proven but aging
Burgoyne - can actually see him going 90 but feel like could be rested at times given Hawks depth
Smith - one season more attention likely - doubts
Shaw - I see 90 here
Gibson - kpp is frawley doubts
Hodge - 90+ but does get odd injury
Hibberd - asada issues
Jaensch - just not convinced
Enlight - old
Birchall - injury preseason can be tagged
Kelly - can get it but often wasteful
Eski, Simpson, Shaw, Hibberd, Hurn, Smith, Hodge, Burgoyne and maybe Birchall I would back to go 90+ without injury
Ok, maybe locks wasn't the right word, but at least the top 6 of them will go 90+. It was more about considering how many points having someone averaging 85 would lose, and it's not many at all.
Yeah you won't lose a lot, but you have to make sure you pick the right mid-pricers. As you said, only starting 1 or 2 is perfectly fine. The people who plan on starting more than that are gonna lose a fair few points though.
Quote from: GoLions on February 28, 2015, 11:23:15 AM
Yeah you won't lose a lot, but you have to make sure you pick the right mid-pricers. As you said, only starting 1 or 2 is perfectly fine. The people who plan on starting more than that are gonna lose a fair few points though.
Exactly, the chances of people picking 4 solid mid-priced options in the one line is so so tiny.
Every year someone in retrospect produces a mid price team that would have won the comp from R1.
And every year the winner goes rooks/guns.
The main reason why mid price strategy fails is that you need to nail all 22 of the selections, no exceptions. If just one of them fails and gives way 50 points that means losing at the end of the year by 1,000 points.
Quote from: honza on February 28, 2015, 11:39:17 AM
Every year someone in retrospect produces a mid price team that would have won the comp from R1.
And every year the winner goes rooks/guns.
The main reason why mid price strategy fails is that you need to nail all 22 of the selections, no exceptions. If just one of them fails and gives way 50 points that means losing at the end of the year by 1,000 points.
And also the sheer amount of trades you need with a team full of mid-pricers. These retrospect teams don't include the half a dozen injured blokes that you need to trade out, and 6 is pretty conservative. Factor these in, plus a couple of inevitable failed mid-pricers/rookies, perhaps even a failed premium, and you will never have enough trades to finish a successful mid-priced team into 22 premiums.
Have to consider Geary after his performance today. Played pure mid and racked up the ball with ease. 25 disposals, 6 rebound 50's, 3 inside 50's 152 SC points.
Savage had 20 disposals off half back at 80% efficiency for 102 SC points as well.
Quote from: AaronKirk on February 28, 2015, 08:35:34 PM
Have to consider Geary after his performance today. Played pure mid and racked up the ball with ease. 25 disposals, 6 rebound 50's, 3 inside 50's 152 SC points.
Savage had 20 disposals off half back at 80% efficiency for 102 SC points as well.
:) agree !
Just redid my back line to see what it looks like with Geary.... now have four Saints players in it :o
The problem is I kinda want to keep them all!
Geary has gone big before, but he does go very low as well. The problem is that he sometimes gets shutdown roles that effect his scoring.
I only get interested in Geary if I get a premo injury down back and want to trade reasonably close to sideways and make some money.
^ That and I don't actually do it.
Picking players on the back of NAB form is a good idea now? Lock in Tom Boyd.
I think Geary can go 80+ no matter what still making 100k can't see anyone losing if you pick him
Quote from: fasttrack13 on March 01, 2015, 12:22:07 PM
I think Geary can go 80+ no matter what still making 100k can't see anyone losing if you pick him
Geary is worth the risk to save some $$$ but you will have to be prepared to cop some bad scores looking at his career , but anyway lets see what he does in the rest of the NAB , there are other players that might avg. about 80 for around that price that may just be a little more consistent
Quote from: fasttrack13 on March 01, 2015, 12:22:07 PM
I think Geary can go 80+ no matter what still making 100k can't see anyone losing if you pick him
Especially if he pums put a 152. 3 weeks later, bam, trade!
Simpson, Shaw, Adcock, Higgins, Geary, Smedts (Goddard, Mckenzie)
To mid priced? :-\
Quote from: Blues Blues Blues on March 01, 2015, 09:27:45 PM
Simpson, Shaw, Adcock, Higgins, Geary, Smedts (Goddard, Mckenzie)
To mid priced? :-\
Shaun Higgins is and always has been the best preseason performer in the AFL. Every year he looks like a gun then the real stuff starts and he never lives up to the hype. At his price you'd be wanting 90+ and it's not going to happen.
Quote from: meow meow on March 01, 2015, 09:39:06 PM
Quote from: Blues Blues Blues on March 01, 2015, 09:27:45 PM
Simpson, Shaw, Adcock, Higgins, Geary, Smedts (Goddard, Mckenzie)
To mid priced? :-\
Shaun Higgins is and always has been the best preseason performer in the AFL. Every year he looks like a gun then the real stuff starts and he never lives up to the hype. At his price you'd be wanting 90+ and it's not going to happen.
Ok, Higgins swap to Newnes. How about now?
Quote from: Blues Blues Blues on March 01, 2015, 10:16:07 PM
Quote from: meow meow on March 01, 2015, 09:39:06 PM
Quote from: Blues Blues Blues on March 01, 2015, 09:27:45 PM
Simpson, Shaw, Adcock, Higgins, Geary, Smedts (Goddard, Mckenzie)
To mid priced? :-\
Shaun Higgins is and always has been the best preseason performer in the AFL. Every year he looks like a gun then the real stuff starts and he never lives up to the hype. At his price you'd be wanting 90+ and it's not going to happen.
Ok, Higgins swap to Newnes. How about now?
Better, mine is
Smith, Shaw, Hurn, Houli, Newnes, Geary at the moment.
The problem with this is that you need to lose something from one of our other lines.
If going down this line I have the option of either
3 premium mids + Rich/Wells, 2 premium rucks and 3 premium forwards
4 premium mids + Belly as R2 & 3 premium forwards
4 premium mids + 2 Premium rucks + 2 Premium forwards & 1 mid price
Personally im liking the last option, with Gray, Goddard/Martin & Swan.
Quote from: meow meow on March 01, 2015, 09:39:06 PM
Quote from: Blues Blues Blues on March 01, 2015, 09:27:45 PM
Simpson, Shaw, Adcock, Higgins, Geary, Smedts (Goddard, Mckenzie)
To mid priced? :-\
Shaun Higgins is and always has been the best preseason performer in the AFL. Every year he looks like a gun then the real stuff starts and he never lives up to the hype. At his price you'd be wanting 90+ and it's not going to happen.
He lived up to it last year - I was more than happy with starting him :P
Better options this year though
Quote from: Big Mac on March 01, 2015, 11:06:37 PM
Quote from: meow meow on March 01, 2015, 09:39:06 PM
Quote from: Blues Blues Blues on March 01, 2015, 09:27:45 PM
Simpson, Shaw, Adcock, Higgins, Geary, Smedts (Goddard, Mckenzie)
To mid priced? :-\
Shaun Higgins is and always has been the best preseason performer in the AFL. Every year he looks like a gun then the real stuff starts and he never lives up to the hype. At his price you'd be wanting 90+ and it's not going to happen.
He lived up to it last year - I was more than happy with starting him :P
Better options this year though
At $250k! And if he was again, he'd be a lock. But he's not. He scored well early and rose in cash, so we all thought he was a great pick. Then he burnt those who kept him thinking he was a premium by putting in a late run of terrible scores.
Standout Mid Pricers after Week One of NAB (300k-400k)
Jarryn Geary 152
Taylor Duryea 118
Shane Savage 102
Jamie MacMillian 93 (270k)
Tom Langdon 92
Kristian Jaksch 80 (265k)
Kade Kolodjashnij 84
Elliott Yeo 74
I've been going with a 5 man premo defence, but I think I am going to drop to a 4 man plus one of these breakout contenders which frees up cash to get better mid rookies
Quote from: meow meow on February 28, 2015, 10:51:41 PM
Picking players on the back of NAB form is a good idea now? Lock in Tom Boyd.
Especially based on the first nab game...
NAB1 means nothing, NAB2-3 means little. RD1 is where it begins
Every time I enter a discussion re defenders it reminds me how I long for the days of the Bowden boys playing kick to kick in the defensive 50....*sigh*....those were the days
Pretty sure I'm going to roll the dice on a mid pricer at D5
Savage, KK, Yeo, Ibbo etc probably aren't worth the risk. If they go onto average 80ish they're not keepers and they don't make heaps of cash
I think Jaksch, McMillian, Geary are more worth the risk because they can average the same as the others, and make more cash. Also costing less means it's less of a risk, making it worth the gamble
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 02, 2015, 03:12:46 PM
Pretty sure I'm going to roll the dice on a mid pricer at D5
Savage, KK, Yeo, Ibbo etc probably aren't worth the risk. If they go onto average 80ish they're not keepers and they don't make heaps of cash
I think Jaksch, McMillian, Geary are more worth the risk because they can average the same as the others, and make more cash. Also costing less means it's less of a risk, making it worth the gamble
The added advantage if you are only taking the risk with 1 of these players at D5 is there's the opportunity for a corrective trade prior to Rd.3 if your choice is spudding it up one of the other options is killing it.
Quote from: Rusty00 on March 02, 2015, 03:19:12 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 02, 2015, 03:12:46 PM
Pretty sure I'm going to roll the dice on a mid pricer at D5
Savage, KK, Yeo, Ibbo etc probably aren't worth the risk. If they go onto average 80ish they're not keepers and they don't make heaps of cash
I think Jaksch, McMillian, Geary are more worth the risk because they can average the same as the others, and make more cash. Also costing less means it's less of a risk, making it worth the gamble
The added advantage if you are only taking the risk with 1 of these players at D5 is there's the opportunity for a corrective trade prior to Rd.3 if your choice is spudding it up one of the other options is killing it.
Great point Rusty
It also free's up 2 upgrade spots as the season goes on to grab 2 premo's who stand out as being Top 5ish that you don't have
The cash I save also allows me to get the best rookies in the mids
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 02, 2015, 03:35:23 PM
Quote from: Rusty00 on March 02, 2015, 03:19:12 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 02, 2015, 03:12:46 PM
Pretty sure I'm going to roll the dice on a mid pricer at D5
Savage, KK, Yeo, Ibbo etc probably aren't worth the risk. If they go onto average 80ish they're not keepers and they don't make heaps of cash
I think Jaksch, McMillian, Geary are more worth the risk because they can average the same as the others, and make more cash. Also costing less means it's less of a risk, making it worth the gamble
The added advantage if you are only taking the risk with 1 of these players at D5 is there's the opportunity for a corrective trade prior to Rd.3 if your choice is spudding it up one of the other options is killing it.
Great point Rusty
It also free's up 2 upgrade spots as the season goes on to grab 2 premo's who stand out as being Top 5ish that you don't have
The cash I save also allows me to get the best rookies in the mids
I'm still worried about there being 2 decent rookies available with NBrown to fill D6-D8
In a worst case scenario what would be better?
3 mid pricers D4-D6
or
Downgrade M5 to a rook and have 5 Def premos and 1 mid pricer
I know, I know there is still a month to go etc but I'm just thinking out loud :)
Well I'm going with 4 premo's, mid pricer and WhiteX, with Brown and a rookie on the bench
If WhiteX doesn't start, then I will look at what other rookies are available (if any) or Jones/another mid pricer if need be
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 02, 2015, 03:51:37 PM
Well I'm going with 4 premo's, mid pricer and WhiteX, with Brown and a rookie on the bench
If WhiteX doesn't start, then I will look at what other rookies are available (if any) or Jones/another mid pricer if need be
I am just about certain whitex is not relevant to start the season
If that's the case then N Brown or a rookie will do. I know I mentioned a mid pricer, but on reflection I think 5 defenders is enough money, and I'll go cheap at D6
I think Geary is your best bet. Although I atm am hoping some rookies pop up with my backline.
Simmo, Shaw/Kelly, Hibberd, Newnes, BROWN, HAMLING - GODDARD, MCKENZIE
I think you can easily get away with 3 premos with some decent mid pricers putting there hand up ;)
Quote from: eaglesman on March 02, 2015, 04:01:54 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 02, 2015, 03:51:37 PM
Well I'm going with 4 premo's, mid pricer and WhiteX, with Brown and a rookie on the bench
If WhiteX doesn't start, then I will look at what other rookies are available (if any) or Jones/another mid pricer if need be
I am just about certain whitex is not relevant to start the season
based on him just not lining up on the wkend? or do you have something else mate
Quote from: Ricochet on March 02, 2015, 04:31:01 PM
Quote from: eaglesman on March 02, 2015, 04:01:54 PM
Quote from: RaisyDaisy on March 02, 2015, 03:51:37 PM
Well I'm going with 4 premo's, mid pricer and WhiteX, with Brown and a rookie on the bench
If WhiteX doesn't start, then I will look at what other rookies are available (if any) or Jones/another mid pricer if need be
I am just about certain whitex is not relevant to start the season
based on him just not lining up on the wkend? or do you have something else mate
I've always been dubious as to his Rd.1 spot in the team. If everyone is fit, I just don't see who comes out of the team for him especially seeing that one player from the GF team will already be omitted due to Frawley's inclusion.