Debut game fantasy averages: smalls beat talls

I’ve been assuming for the purposes of the Fanplanner feature on FanFooty that draftees and rookies playing their first game of senior AFL football are going to score 50 fantasy points… let’s look at some historical data to see if that’s true.

I’ve had a look through the historical data on FanFooty for statistics from the first home & away game of all currently listed AFL players. I’ve grouped these numbers based on the Champion Data player types – those who bought the AFL Prospectus this year will know what I’m talking about, as Champion classifies each player according to their position (Defender, Midfielder, Forward, Ruck, Utility), size (Small, Medium, Tall) and role (In or Out for midfielders, General or Key for forwards and backs). Here’s the list, sorted by average:

Now you know why Chris Yarran is most popular bench forward and Steele Sidebottom is at the top of midfield benches in the Fanplanner. Small players fare up to 20 points better than talls at the same position in their first game.

Okay, so those beanpoles might get a little more wobbly in their debut among the big boys, but is that just opening night nerves? Let’s extend the numbers out to the first three games of all listed players.

The numbers bunch up as you’d expect, particularly at the bottom end of the scale where tall players start to find their feet.

For you Super Coach freaks out there, here’s the same table with SC numbers. I only have figures back from 2004 onwards, but there’s still a sizeable set of numbers to crunch. There’s a significantly different mix:

Forwards of all sizes and roles are almost all in the bottom half, which is big difference with the DT list. Tall defenders are still down towards the bottom but they’re startable in a pinch, as Nathan J. Brown and Harry Taylor were this year during the troubles. Small outside midfielders in particular are highly startable – this list includes Brent Harvey, Chance Bateman, Luke Power and Tarkyn Lockyer. The four medium key defenders in that list are Joel Bowden, Antoni Grover, Leo Barry and Josh Head.

For the sake of completion, here’s the three-game table for Super Coach:

We won’t know the official Champion Data designations until the AFL Prospectus comes out, which should be late January based on this year’s release schedule. They will prove to be an interesting read, especially for how utilities such as Sidebottom are classified. Another ream of data to throw in the pile for your pre-season reading!