Elevation with JKT: 2010 Round 1 projections v2 (2/4)

Hawthorn’s Jarrod Kayler-Thomson is one of many rookies vying for elevation for round 1 teams.

I am breaking this second edition of the team projections up into four posts, because they are taking me a looooong time to compile. I am including injury and suspension and retirement lists for each team as usual. Keep in mind that these are all projected for round 1, so that some who are currently injured are not labeled as such because I expect them to recover in time.

Melbourne
FB: Jared Rivers, Matthew Warnock, Cameron Bruce
HB: Joel Macdonald, James Frawley, Aaron Davey
C: Jack Trengove, Brent Moloney, Jack Grimes
HF: Brad Green, Matthew Bate, Colin Sylvia
FF: Austin Wonaeamirri, Brad Miller, Ricky Petterd
Fol: Mark Jamar, James McDonald, Nathan Jones
Int: Stefan Martin, Tom Scully, Jamie Bennell, Addam Maric
In: Scully, Bennell, Wonaeamirri
Out: Liam Jurrah, Cale Morton, Colin Garland
Iffy: Scully, Bennell, Maric, Trengove
Waiting: Garland, James Strauss, Rohan Bail, Lynden Dunn
Injured: Jurrah, Morton, Paul Johnson, Jack Watts, Sam Blease, Luke Tapscott, Max Gawn, John Meesen, Daniel Bell

The switches from Morton to Scully and Jurrah to Wonaeamirri seem obvious enough, but dropping Garland from this team will raise the heckles of the small (but vocal) minority who seems to think he’s at all fantasy-relevant this year. Newsflash: he’s not. The reason I have swapped him for Bennell in this team is the lack of Franklin for the Hawks makes the Demons backline too top-heavy for what is likely to be a smaller Hawthorn attack. Garland is the odd man out among the five tall backs due to his relatively short preseason, plagued by foot troubles. Martin stays in as #2 ruck, rotating back to spell the three tall defenders.

Mystery surrounds the severity of Jurrah’s shoulder dislocation so I’m erring on the side of caution. Wona is hardly a like-for-like, though if Bailey is looking for a third marking tall, Green or Petterd could approximate that role. The other, less likely option is bringing in Dunn as a marking forward in place of Maric, though I suspect the Hawks have a good matchup for his body shape in Gibson.

So yes, I am projecting both Trengove and Scully to make their debuts in round 1. I expect Trengove to play more games and score more points. Plenty of fantasy coaches are with me on that thought, evidently. Given Melbourne’s eternally long injury list, though, who is to say that they won’t both play many more games than planned? With Connors lurking at around the same price, the choices at that bracket pull at the heartstrings.

Hawthorn
FB: Josh Gibson, Stephen Gilham, Brent Guerra
HB: Xavier Ellis, Ryan Schoenmakers, Grant Birchall
C: Beau Muston, Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis
HF: Michael Osborne, Beau Dowler, Luke Hodge
FF: Garry Moss, Jarryd Roughead, Cyril Rioli
Fol: Brent Renouf, Liam Shiels, Shaun Burgoyne
Int: Wayde Skipper, Campbell Brown, Rick Ladson, Jarrod Kayler-Thomson
In: Kayler-Thomson, Skipper, Moss
Out: Simon Taylor, Brad Sewell, Rhan Hooper
Iffy: Muston, Rioli, Burgoyne, Kayler-Thomson
Waiting: Clinton Young, Matt Suckling, Jarryd Morton, Carl Peterson
Injured: Max Bailey, Cameron Stokes, Taylor, Sewell, Brendan Whitecross, Luke Lowden,
Suspended: Lance Franklin, Chance Bateman
Retired: Trent Croad

Three rookie elevation spots for the Hawks with Croad, Bailey and Taylor all making way. Skipper must be elevated to cover for Taylor, Moss is pretty much assured so the last spot is down to either Kayler-Thomson or Peterson. Training watchers are divided on who it should be, depending on your opinion of whether the Hawks need another outside-running left-footer or a mercurial forward/on-baller. In other words, a Young type or a Rioli type. The other option is to consign Whitecross to the LTI list and promote both. Things are that bad down at Waverley… again.

I’m sorry to sound like a broken record on this. Yes, Hawthorn are going into a second consecutive season with multiple senior players carrying niggles into round 1 that have interrupted their preseason. Rioli, Burgoyne, Lewis, Ladson, Renouf, Guerra, Young, Osborne, Dowler… all have been on the injury list at some point this year already. It is a huge concern for fantasy, because the injury curse may consign the Hawks to another underperforming season and drag down its premiums again.

Brisbane
FB: Ashley McGrath, Daniel Merrett, Joel Patfull
HB: Jed Adcock, Matt Maguire, Josh Drummond
C: Cheynee Stiller, Daniel Rich, Travis Johnstone
HF: Jared Brennan, Jonathan Brown, Justin Sherman
FF: James Polkinghorne, Brendan Fevola, Amon Buchanan
Fol: Mitch Clark, Simon Black, Michael Rischitelli
Int: Matthew Leuenberger, Jack Redden, Tom Collier, Tom Rockliff
In: Rockliff, Redden
Out: James Hawksley, Brent Staker
Iffy: Collier, Rockliff, Maguire, Redden
Waiting: Troy Selwood, Sam Sheldon, Albert Proud, Staker
Injured: Xavier Clarke, Callum Bartlett, Luke Power, Jamie Charman

Hawksley has not shown enough in the NAB despite early hype. Those who expected Staker to waltz into the Lions best 22 only have to have seen his NAB form – or more to the point, not seen it. Or seen him at all. Rockliff, on the other hand, has been a NAB superstar and deserves a spot on form in front of a host of candidates. I have inserted Redden but this spot could easily be taken by Proud or Sheldon.

Power’s preseason has been shrouded in mystery, with a lingering groin problem bringing up predictable rumours of osteitis pubis. There are enough younger legs with enough quality on the list that coach Voss can afford to take it easy with his old premiership teammate.

I expect Maguire to hold down CHB, not necessarily because he’s so scintillatingly good himself, but more to free up other backmen into more productive roles, similar to how Harry Taylor has become so important at Geelong and Zac Dawson at St Kilda. His presence will take the pressure off Patfull, and allow more time for the likes of McGrath, Adcock and Drummond to rebound.

West Coast
FB: Beau Waters, Darren Glass, Matt Spangher
HB: Adam Selwood, Mitchell Brown, Shannon Hurn
C: Tom Swift, Daniel Kerr, Brad Ebert
HF: Mark LeCras, Josh J. Kennedy, Sam Butler
FF: Ben McKinley, Quinten Lynch, Mark Nicoski
Fol: Dean Cox, Matt Priddis, Chris Masten
Int: Nick Naitanui, Andrew Embley, Matt Rosa, Luke Shuey
In: Shuey, Spangher
Out: Bradd Dalziell, Eric MacKenzie
Iffy: Rosa, Butler, McKinley, Shuey
Waiting: Dalziell, Brad Sheppard, Brett Jones, Ashley Hansen

Dalziell has done his dash in the preseason in the eyes of most watchers. The Eagles are the only AFL club to be picking from a full list with no injuries at the moment – interrupted preseasons to Kerr, Priddis and MacKenzie aside – so Dalziell is currently not in the best 22 for West Coast.

With three runners on the bench, I am expecting both ruckmen to deputise back and forward to provide height when KPPs are resting. This does not mean I think Naitanui will become startable as a #2 ruck. I am still of the opinion that NicNat is the ultimate nuffie pick of 2010. If you have him starting in your fantasy team, you are a nuff-nuff. Unless Cox gets injured, in which case all bets are off. 😉

Waters played in the forward pocket in the NAB Cup but reverted back to his normal half-back role in this weekend’s NAB Challenge match, which makes one wonder what his role is going to be in the regular season. It seems like Nicoski is not a bad option to fill the hole as second small forward beside LeCras, so where is a clearly underdone Waters really needed? Given his rustiness, he may be best suited to a pinch-hitting reduced-TOG role in the manner of Stuart Dew in 2008, which by definition would be poor for fantasy. Too many question marks still hang over Waters for me to have any confidence in him as a starter. Given the depth of cheap backs this year I could certainly see him as a #8 back for your bench, if you can stomach the extra cost.