This or that? - Dane Swan vs Dayne Beams vs Scott Pendlebury

Started by Toga, October 21, 2012, 01:56:59 PM

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Toga

The three maggie midfielders that are on everyone's mind. We'd love to start all of them but realistically we should only start two because of the bye rounds. All are superstars of the DT world, the DT Piggy in Dane Swan, the Tatted Apprentice in Dane Beams, and the ever-reliable Scott Pendlebury. So which two should we be picking next February?

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Dane Swan (Collingwood Magpies)


Age: 28

Price: $687,400

2011 average: 121.0

2012 average: 133.5

2012 lowest score: 95 (vs GEE)

2012 highest score: 187 (vs ESS)

Probability 100+ score: 94%

Standard deviation: 27.3

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Dayne Beams (Collingwood Magpies)


Age: 22

Price: $598,400

2011 average: 101.6

2012 average: 116.4

2012 lowest score (non-sub affected): 74 (vs RIC)

2012 highest score: 155 (vs MEL)

Probability 100+ score: 81%

Standard deviation: 21.7

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Scott Pendlebury (Collingwood Magpies)


Age: 24

Price: $568,000

2011 average: 116.6

2012 average: 110.3

2012 lowest score (non-sub affected): 62 (vs CAR)

2012 highest score: 142 (vs HAW)

Probability 100+ score: 72%

Standard deviation: 23.4

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The judgement:

Price: (3) Pendlebury, (2) Beams, (1) Swan. Pendles is underpriced due to his mid season injury, and at a touch under 100K cheaper than Swanny, he proves great value. Beams is the 'inbetweener' in the pricing situation.

Scoring ability: (3) Swan, (2) Beams, (2) Pendles.. Can't go past the guy that dipped under 100 only once this season with a few huge games culminating in a massive 187 to end the season. I've given beams and pendles even points here, I know beams averaged more than pendles this year, but looking at pendles average last year and they are basically even. Take out Pendle's injury this year and I think it is safe to say they are pretty similar.

Consistency: (3) Swan, (2) Beams, (1) Pendles. I know Swanny has the substantially higher standard deviation but i think we can disregard that here, as while the spread of his scores was big, signifying inconsistency, swanny was consistently HUGE. As i said, only dipped below 100 once, i don't think you can fault that consistency. Pendles might be a bit hard done by here, as he is known for his consistency which was hurt this year by his leg injury.

Durability: Even I want to try and distinguish the three amigos here but it really is quite hard. Swanny previously has been the most durable, but had his season interrupted both this year and last year mid season with a hammy strain, before getting suspended due to off-field discretion later in the season. Pendles has also been reasonably durable across his career, but had his 2012 interrupted by a fractured leg. Beams has been not as durable as the other two, being injured last year before missing round one of this year due to injury, but once he got on track was not bothered by injury for the rest of the season. I call evens!

Susceptibility to sub: n/a

Verdict: Can't go past..... Swan! Although he will be the most expensive player in the game next year, you just can't go past the DT pig! With such a massive cieling, along with sublime consistency socring over 100 on all but one occasion in season 2012, there is just no substitute. A walk-up captain week in, week out, he is a must have in 2013. As for the other two... They are reasonably even in my humble opinion. Both should average over 115 ppg next year i would think, with Dayne possible going a tad higher than Pendles in the long run due to his natural development and DT-slutty qualities. Although there has been some question as to whether Lukie Ball's presence in the team will affect his output. For me, I think all will be must-haves come DT finals in 2013, but might play it safe and take the cheaper and less-risky option in Pendles next year and look to upgrade to Beamer later in the season.

The votes: (1) Dane Swan...........7 votes
                 (2) Scott Pendlebury...6 votes
                 (2) Dayne Beams........6 votes

So, in short, PICK SWAN! And then as to the other two, it comes down to personal preference I guess, but I think I'd start Pendles and look to Beams as an upgrade target.

Football Factory

Nice write up Toga .. Swanny is the man but i think i might go the upgrade option with him this year  :o .. Pendles is underpriced so ill have him for sure and Ablett as my captain .. Id be interested to see a "This or That"  Swan vs Ablett  if anyone can be bothered

Toga

Quote from: FOOTBALL FACTORY on October 21, 2012, 02:06:11 PM
Nice write up Toga .. Swanny is the man but i think i might go the upgrade option with him this year  :o .. Pendles is underpriced so ill have him for sure and Ablett as my captain .. Id be interested to see a "This or That"  Swan vs Ablett  if anyone can be bothered

i'll do one for ablett vs swan now :)

elephants

Wicked write-up champ!

I'll likely only be having Pendles as a Pie midfielder as my unique midfield strtaegy takes shape ;)

Toga

Quote from: elephants on October 21, 2012, 03:07:36 PM
Wicked write-up champ!

I'll likely only be having Pendles as a Pie midfielder as my unique midfield strtaegy takes shape ;)

haha cheers mate!

??? only one?! risky! i like it 8)

Justin Bieber


elephants

Quote from: Toga on October 21, 2012, 03:12:12 PM
Quote from: elephants on October 21, 2012, 03:07:36 PM
Wicked write-up champ!

I'll likely only be having Pendles as a Pie midfielder as my unique midfield strtaegy takes shape ;)

haha cheers mate!

??? only one?! risky! i like it 8)

Yeah, I'm pretty loose :P Nah, the thinking is that Swannie is an upgrade target (taking Gablett over Swanny at this stage) and I put Cotchin, Marc and others ahead of Beamsy for the moment anyway :)

Also the fact I may or may not have Luke Ball in my side will add to that bye situation ;)

henry

Swan the only one of those three for me, with GAJ, Murphy, Cotchin and Ball being my top 5 mids. Definitely will look at the other 2 as upgrade targets though.

elephants


Noz

Swan will drop of a bit next year and will spend a bit more time playing forward. Still should have a great average come years end but i reckon Beams may be better to pick out of the 3.

Adamant

Great write up Toga, really enjoying them :)

Swan is locked - safest captain option in the comp and a must-have.

Pendles is even more of a lock! - He had a sub-par year by his standards, but still managed to average 110 (7th highest in the league). He is also underpriced and will definitely be a top 5 mid.

Current Mids: Swan, Ablett, Pendles, Cotchin, rook, rook (rook, rook) BOOM!

Football Factory

Quote from: Adamant on October 21, 2012, 05:46:46 PM
Great write up Toga, really enjoying them :)

Swan is locked - safest captain option in the comp and a must-have.

Pendles is even more of a lock! - He had a sub-par year by his standards, but still managed to average 110 (7th highest in the league). He is also underpriced and will definitely be a top 5 mid.

Current Mids: Swan, Ablett, Pendles, Cotchin, rook, rook (rook, rook) BOOM!
Will be a very popular midfield, i might squeeze in a Ball aswell tho well see when the official prices come out..

Holz

Pendles is a lock for me, really undervalued because of the injury i think he could become a captain option. Swanny im considering depending on price and if i can fit him in. Beams is no chance, just too risky in my eyes when you can get a pendles, swanny,ablett instead.

Scrads

I will be one of the only people next year to start with all 3 of Swan, Pendles and Beams next year and hopefully having the trio will be a good unique for me to get a decent start on everybody else :)

stew42

I think the votes actually go Swan 7 Pendles 6 Beams 6
That looks a bit different...  :-\