This or that? - Trent Cotchin vs Marc Murphy

[Toga]

Many DT coaches are facing the dilemma for the 2013 season as to wether to start Trent Cotchin, the young Richmond superstar and leader, or Marc Murphy, the underpriced yet proven Carlton jet. We'd all like to lock in both, but realisitcally you'd think we could only afford to start one of them unless we cull a GAJ or Swanny.

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Trent Cotchin (Richmond Tigers)

Age: 22

Price: $569,600

2011 average: 93.6

2012 average: 110.4

2012 lowest score: 61 (vs PA)

2012 highest score: 152 (vs WBD)

Probability 100+ score: 77%

Standard deviation: 21.1

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Marc Murphy (Carlton Blues)

Age: 25

Price: $529,200

2011 average: 111.4

2012 average: 100.8

2012 lowest score (non-sub affected): 68 (vs STK)

2012 highest score: 162 (vs ESS)

Probability 100+ score: 50%

Standard deviation: 30.5

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The judgement:

Price: Murphy. Murphy gets the votes here, just a bit cheaper and is underpriced for what he could do due to his sub-affected 27.

Scoring ability: Cotchin. This season Murphy had the higher ceiling (albeit by 10 points) but Cotchin could be relied on to ton up in 77% of his games compared to just 50% from Murphy. Cotch scored tons in his last 10 games. Can't go past that.

Consistency: Cotchin. Cotchin had the substantially lower standard deviation, and despite Murphy's containing his sub-affected 27, Cotchin's scoring was generally more consistent (with those 10 straight tons).

Durability: Even. Cotchin was injury plagued in his first three seasons but has now played two full seasons in a row, so I think its safe to say he's put his injuries behind him. Murphy has been very durable across his career up until this year, when he came off on the wrong side of a Paddy Dangerfield bump - but who wouldn't end up like that after colliding with the bull?! ::) Don't think this injury will plague him next year, so I'll call this even.

Susceptibility to sub: Even. Both are integral to their team so can't be distinguished in this area.

Verdict: Can't go past..... Cotchin! Although Murphy is obviously underpriced due to this year's injury, Cotch finished the year like a house on fire socring 10 straight tons. The fact that Cotch scored tons in 77% of his games compared to Murph's 50% is also a contributing factor, with Cotchin being far more consistent than Murph.

Ideally, we'd go M4 Cotch, M5 Murph, but if you have the extra dosh, jump on Cotchy!  8)

[Football Factory]

Nice work Toga...Both for me  :)

[Toga]

Nice work Toga...Both for me  :)

thanks mate :)

yeah i'm thinking the same, cotchin is locked, and depends on other positions and whether i put in murphy ahead of (dare i say it) gaj

[henry]

Nice work Toga...Both for me  :)

Both for me too. GAJ and Swan round out for 4 mid premos with Ball/Embley/Rischa as M5. I'd actually go for Murph if I had to choose 1 due to him being 40k cheaper. The reason why he didn't get as many tons was because he had 6 weeks out and took a bit of game time to get going again. He has proven over the years that he is a consistent ton scorer.

[Ziplock]

Murphy- you have someone who's quite a proven scorer, who really only had his average drop via injury, vs a guy coming off a break out year.

you know who else tonned up in his last 10 games? Rockliff, 2011.

[Mr.Craig]

For me it's more a question of Murphy vs Redden.

[aces-high]

Cotch locked! Considering both though. With swans hefty price im feeling a gazza,pendles, cotch, murph, ball setup. Turning ball into swan as a guaranteed upgrade around rd 10 (hopefully after swan drops). That extra money freed up is very handy

[aces-high]

Murphy- you have someone who's quite a proven scorer, who really only had his average drop via injury, vs a guy coming off a break out year.

you know who else tonned up in his last 10 games? Rockliff, 2011.

Dimma isnt as stupid as voss thought mate! Cotch will play 85% onball to 15% forward. Wheras rocky was playing 50/50. The burden of captaincy will take him to a new level imo aswel. The guy oozes leadership and like watson will lead and dominate from the front.

[Toga]

Murphy- you have someone who's quite a proven scorer, who really only had his average drop via injury, vs a guy coming off a break out year.

you know who else tonned up in his last 10 games? Rockliff, 2011.

Dimma isnt as stupid as voss thought mate! Cotch will play 85% onball to 15% forward. Wheras rocky was playing 50/50. The burden of captaincy will take him to a new level imo aswel. The guy oozes leadership and like watson will lead and dominate from the front.

+1 you're stupid if you think dimma will play cotchin out of full forward lol.

ok, i'll accept that murphy is a proven scorer, but what about those games before he was injured and got tagged for a showerty score? and i don't think you can blame all of those post-injury scores on him 'working his way back into it'

[Adamant]

Great work Toga.

I had Murphy locked, but his latest surgery is definitely a worry :-\

CARLTON
Start of pre-season: Monday, October 29. Players with five years experience or more return on Monday, November 5
Injury list: Marc Murphy (shoulder, knee), Matthew Kreuzer (knee), Andrew McInnes (knee), Marcus Davies (hip)

Murphy and Kreuzer both underwent further surgery at the end of the season and will be on modified programs until well into December. McInnes underwent a traditional knee reconstruction after he landed awkwardly in the early minutes of the Blues' round 22 loss to Gold Coast and is targeting a return to the field in May next year. Carlton will undertake a high-altitude training camp in Arizona for two weeks from November 9 with the players to be given a week off on their return.

Thinking he may start slow and therefore be a better upgrade target!?

[Ziplock]

there was one game where he got tagged for a shower score prior to injury.

I think it's acceptable to say that it'd take at least 2 games to get back into it after being out with a soft tissue injury for 6 weeks or so, which gives him an average of 108.

He only really scores terribly against St Kilda, I mean taking out his injury affected gaves and the saints games his lowest score is 92.

[Colliwobblers]

cotchin for me not a big murphy fan, but he does go aweful well in SC I still think I have all but locked beams and cotchin in alongside swan and pendles with ablett in charge of the lot of them and yes i'll start 5 elite mids in 2013 after only starting 3 in 2012.

why not the discounted players available in other positions make it viable especially if burger is your ruck #2.

very strong chance my DT midfield for 2013 will start out like so

Swan - Ablett - Beams - Pendles - Cotchin - Ball - Rooks.......

is there a pattern?

[Football Factory]

cotchin for me not a big murphy fan, but he does go aweful well in SC I still think I have all but locked beams and cotchin in alongside swan and pendles with ablett in charge of the lot of them and yes i'll start 5 elite mids in 2013 after only starting 3 in 2012.

why not the discounted players available in other positions make it viable especially if burger is your ruck #2.

very strong chance my DT midfield for 2013 will start out like so

Swan - Ablett - Beams - Pendles - Cotchin - Ball - Rooks.......

is there a pattern?

Cant see Berger being 200k, but i hope so  :)

[Adamant]

cotchin for me not a big murphy fan, but he does go aweful well in SC I still think I have all but locked beams and cotchin in alongside swan and pendles with ablett in charge of the lot of them and yes i'll start 5 elite mids in 2013 after only starting 3 in 2012.

why not the discounted players available in other positions make it viable especially if burger is your ruck #2.

very strong chance my DT midfield for 2013 will start out like so

Swan - Ablett - Beams - Pendles - Cotchin - Ball - Rooks.......

is there a pattern?

I thought you werent keen on Pendles a couple of days ago Colli?

[stew42]

Good write up, but it should be Lids vs Cotch