LaHug's Captains Round 5 Part 1 (Loophole VCs)

[LaHug]

Hey guys,
Due to the ANZAC Day clash, there will once again be a chance to use the loophole. If you don't understand how this works, make sure you read the following more than once and then, if you still don't understand, ask questions.

Step 1: Make a player in Wednesday's game your VC.
Step 2: If you like their score, substitute a non-playing player onto the field and give him the C. If you don't like their score (i.e. you think one of your guns can score higher), leave the C on your big gun captain choice.
Step 3: Make sure (for the love of all that is holy) that you make the player that you subbed off your emergency so that you still get their score!
And it's that easy!

VC predictions will be a bit bigger than they should be and based more on potential than likely scores. This is because it is your VC and you want to risk it on someone that could get you a huge score. I will add captain choices during the week.

Each week, I will do some statistics on a player's last 3 games, their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and taking a punt at their score for this week. If you have any requests, just ask away and I'll get to them as soon as I can!

The facts:

Swan
Last 3 weeks: 134, 109, 116 (120 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 171, 104, 116 (130 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 109, 116, 102 (109 avg)

Pendlebury
Last 3 weeks: 124, 62, 122 (103 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 141, 166, 134 (147 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 62, 122, 132 (105 avg)

Stanton
Last 3 weeks: 175, 93, 116 (128 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 155, 108, 86 (116 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 175, 155, 93 (141 avg)

Watson
Last 3 weeks: 100, 94, 139 (111 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 105, 101, 84 (97 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 100, 105, 33 (79 avg)

The thoughts:

Swan
Finally got that huge score we were waiting for this week with his 138 being amongst the best. Although he scores well against the Bombers (e.g. his 171 last year), it's usually Pendlebury that dominates the ANZAC game. It's hard to predict just how well he will go but he should be a good VC choice. Prediction - 120

Pendlebury
Pendles is the ANZAC Day specialist and loves playing against the Bombers. Predictably, they are one of his favourite teams to play (only averages better against the Eagles and Suns) so you'd expect him to play huge. The Bombers are definitely on a high right now but can they stop him on the day he has shined many times before? I'd be expecting something big. Prediction - 135

Stanton
Stanton's scores this season are evidence that he can score HUGE with two scores of 150+ out of four games. He has scored big against the Pies in the past, particularly on ANZAC Day (last three on the big day are 108, 139, 139). Of course, you can never tell what you're going to get with this guy but that makes the opportunity for the VC even better. Surely the best choice on Wednesday's game for the punt. Prediction - 140

Watson
His scores are much less impressive than the other big midfielders playing on Wednesday. That 33 was an injury game but the other mediocre scores don't have any reasons. I wouldn't pick him, considering all the other options for VC, unless you have nobody else. Prediction - 100

The verdict:

1. Stanton (140)
2. Pendlebury (135)
3. Swan (120)


Requests:

Sidebottom - Requested by Tom_16
Last 3 weeks: 117, 113, 90 (107 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 104, 72, 98 (91 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 113, 85, 87 (95 avg)

Having only played Essendon four times, his scores against them don't tell you much. What I can say is that his last two weeks have made his owners happy and made him look like a good buy. Hard to put him above Swan and Pendles and you could only put him above Stanton if you're predicting a big Pies win. Still, if you don't have the aforementioned players, he's probably a good VC choice. I like his last two games (albeit, one against the Power) so I'll predict a bit of consistency. Prediction - 115

Cloke - Requested by The Hanger
Last 3 weeks: 103, 58, 94 (85 avg)
Last 3 against Essendon: 83, 118, 162 (121 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 58, 94, 93 (82 avg)

Last year, Ryder well and truly smashed Cloke (as The Hanger said) and Cloke's score only became reasonable because of some junk time fun. However, ANZAC Day last year, Cloke smashed Hooker in the 4th quarter to kick three goals and score 118. In 2010, he had 4 goals on Hooker on ANZAC Day before smashing him in round 20 for 5 goals 5 behinds in a BOG performance. So, it would seem that Ryder on Cloke = bad for Cloke, Hooker on Cloke = good for Cloke. I'd predict Ryder to play a more free role than holding down Cloke this year, if only because of no Hille for the Bombers (I assume) but also because they've been playing well with Ryder as a focus point. So, Cloke may well have another good day. Prediction - 115

Ryder - Requested by Bones Bombers
Last 3 weeks: 77, 91, 112 (93 avg)
Last 3 against Collingwood: 61, 59, 89 (70 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 77, 61, 65 (68 avg)

Ryder has had one DT relevant game against Collingwood in his 6 years (11 games) against them. This was ANZAC Day 2009. This season, he has been a bit more DT relevant, averaging just over 100. There are a few obvious fears in picking him as your captain (lucky there's a VC!). If he goes to Cloke again (stopped him very effectively in round 19 last season), you wouldn't expect much over 60. Then there's his average record against the Pies and his general lack of consistent and big scoring throughout his career. Obviously, if you have nobody else, he's a fine pick. Equally, if you have a gut feeling that this year will be a repeat of his 2009 heroics, then pick him VC. Still, I wouldn't go him unless you had nobody better. Prediction - 80

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments!

[Tom_16]

Only bombers and pies players i have are heppell and sidey so i'll give sidey a crack with the VC

[TheHanger]

T Cloke, remember last time was cleaned up by Paddy Ryder but without Hille in the side Ryder won't be able to do that

[LaHug]

Only bombers and pies players i have are heppell and sidey so i'll give sidey a crack with the VC

T Cloke, remember last time was cleaned up by Paddy Ryder but without Hille in the side Ryder won't be able to do that

Are these requests or just comments? Haha

[Colliwobblers]

well done LaHug, awesome write up.

I was planning on making Swan my Captain anyway this just allows me to have Ablett as a back up, if he plays. I like the way Swan came out and responded to the attacks on him, fact is he is a little underdone and he WILL get better as we all know how much better he can be.

Bit hard to trust the Pies at the moment Pendles also looks a little lost, acting captain then max back, new game plan, new coach, new back line, Hard to put the C on any of them at the moment, but as you well explained this is the perfect chance to be able to get on one with the chance of taking the score or leaving it.

On the other hand for the bombers owners, a chance for everyone who owns Stanton and put the C on Ablett instead this round to hedge thier bets next round.

[Jukes]

Who won't play though so I can get Stanton's 150? None of Coniglio, Macdonald and Shiel for sure. Gonna go with Stants as full captain, he always kills the pies and is on major form.

[stew42]

Hoping that Clay Smith isn't named. That's the only problem I see with doing this. Ah well, if he is named, I will probably have to swap to Boydy or GAJ for the big C, so that isn't too awful, I suppose.

[its me lads]

swans previous anzac day stats arent good.

104,83

did get 141 but that was back in 09'

[Tom_16]

Only bombers and pies players i have are heppell and sidey so i'll give sidey a crack with the VC

T Cloke, remember last time was cleaned up by Paddy Ryder but without Hille in the side Ryder won't be able to do that

Are these requests or just comments? Haha

Well it was just a comment but now you mention it could you please so a write up on sidey  8) thanks mate

[LaHug]

It is a common misconception that the non-playing player has to be on the same spot on the field as the VC.
This is NOT the case.
Most teams will have one of O. Stephenson, Mumford, Fyfe, and a bunch of rookies who may be rested (particularly those from GWS). It is unlikely that all of your players will be playing.
Keep an eye out for injury lists as well as any news you hear about players having a rest. If you find any new information, post it here.

[LaHug]

swans previous anzac day stats arent good.

104,83

did get 141 but that was back in 09'

Yeah, I mentioned that Pendles seems to be the bigger ANZAC Day performer but I still wouldn't be surprised if Swan goes big.

Only bombers and pies players i have are heppell and sidey so i'll give sidey a crack with the VC

T Cloke, remember last time was cleaned up by Paddy Ryder but without Hille in the side Ryder won't be able to do that

Are these requests or just comments? Haha

Well it was just a comment but now you mention it could you please so a write up on sidey  8) thanks mate

Will do this now as a last thing before I go to bed.

[Justin Bieber]

Chucking it on pendles. I will not put it on ablett this week even if he plays.

[Tom_16]

swans previous anzac day stats arent good.

104,83

did get 141 but that was back in 09'

Yeah, I mentioned that Pendles seems to be the bigger ANZAC Day performer but I still wouldn't be surprised if Swan goes big.

Only bombers and pies players i have are heppell and sidey so i'll give sidey a crack with the VC

T Cloke, remember last time was cleaned up by Paddy Ryder but without Hille in the side Ryder won't be able to do that

Are these requests or just comments? Haha

Well it was just a comment but now you mention it could you please so a write up on sidey  8) thanks mate

Will do this now as a last thing before I go to bed.

Thanks mate, there is a cheer coming your way for your effort.

[LaHug]

Chucking it on pendles. I will not put it on ablett this week even if he plays.

Yeah, I'm thinking it'll likely be a Swan VC and Selwood or Rocky (or someone else in my mids) C. Too unsure with Ablett.

[Holz]

I would be careful using the loophole as in the last couple of rounds emergency spots have been vital, I have already copped a mummy donut from not having a ruck emergency. IM not srue if im willing to take the risk on wasting an emergency spot.

Saying that I think its worth the punt this week with actual legitimate VC options. Im thinking Swan over Pendles just becasue Swanny has a bigger celing, im not sure if a 120 will cut it for my VC.