LaHug's Captains Round 2 Part 2

[LaHug]

So, I'm sure you're all wondering whether to keep your VC's score or not... Well, actually, you're probably not wondering that because most of the options weren't very good. Unless you had Juddy's 136 or Waite's 131 (does anyone have Waite?!), you should go looking elsewhere. Welcome to elsewhere!

Each week, I will do some statistics on a player's last 3 games (assuming they've played 3 games this season), their last 3 against this week's opponent, and their last 3 at this ground. I will also do a quick overview on my thoughts and taking a punt at their score for this week. If you have any requests, just ask away and I'll get to them as soon as I can!

The facts:

Swan
Last week: 102
Last 3 against Richmond: 131, 133, 125 (130 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 102, 84, 119 (102 avg)

Ablett
Last week: 136
Last 3 against St. Kilda: 118, 67, 114 (100 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 81, 115, 95 (97 avg)

NDS
Last week: 114
Last 3 against GC: 154 (154 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 79, 106, 115 (100 avg)

Goddard
Last week: 96
Last 3 against GC: 152 (152 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 122, 82, 69 (91 avg)

Pendlebury
Last week: 132
Last 3 against Richmond: 121, 114, 104 (113 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 132, 106, 94 (111 avg)

Boyd
Last week: 116
Last 3 against Adelaide: 70, 82, 94 (82 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 123, 82, 94 (100 avg)

Thompson
Last week: 135
Last 3 against Essendon: 116, 127, 108 (117 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 100, 89, 71 (87 avg)

The thoughts:

Swan
Swanny loves playing the Tiges and, to keep it short, I reckon he'll smash them. He started last year very strong and I think he should have some pretty good games early on in this season as well (that's why he's in my DT right now). I shouldn't have to say much about Swan's potential to score big and I think this will be one of those weeks where he does just that. Prediction - 130

Ablett
Other than that 67, Ablett seems to have fairly consistent scores of about 110-120 against the Saints (both with GC and the Cats). I'd be expecting something similar based on statistics alone. His scores at Etihad seem to sit around the same mark. He is GAJ so he could go nuts and score something insane but I think there are probably better options. Prediction - 115

NDS
The fun thing about teams playing against the Gold Coast is it's really easy to score big against them. The Crows scored 5 tons against them last week and another 4 players got above 90. Usually there are one or two players who score BIG against the Suns (Thompson's 135 last week, for example). Well, last season, that was Dal Santo's 154 (and Goddard did well too - see below). The Suns don't tag so he'll be free to dominate again. Expect something big! Prediction - 135

Goddard
The other bloke that smashed the Suns when the Saints played them last year was Goddard. A huge 152 was his highest ever score. He should score big but Goddard started slow last year and might do the same this time. There's more of a risk than with NDS but I still expect something good. Prediction - 125

Pendlebury
He doesn't have as good an average against the Tigers as Swan (although it's still decent) but Pendles seems to be in the better form of the Magpie duo. Still, I think he'll get the most attention from the Tiges (not sure they can apply much of a tag though) so he probably won't score as hugely. Should still do well. Prediction - 120

Boyd
Boyd just flat out hates playing the Crows. He hasn't tonned up on them since 2007 and has a 74 average against them since then. I can't emphasise enough that you should steer clear of him this week. He's not going to ton up. He's just not. Prediction - 75

Thompson
Ignore the AAMI scores because he also had some huge ones there last season, just his last three weren't so great. A big score last week was against the Suns so I'm not sure how much you can take from that either. All we know is that Adelaide are doing well, the Doggies are not. Thompson has a pretty good average against them but they didn't give up any huge scores last week, despite getting smashed. He'll probably do well but won't do anything super.
Edit: It's his 200th game this week. He may well do something super after all (particularly if the Crows win comfortably). Prediction - 120

The verdict:

1. NDS (135)
2. Swan (130)
3. Goddard (125)
4. Pendlebury (120)
5. Thompson (120)

Requests:

Selwood - Requested by Ricochet
Last week: 114
Last 3 against Hawthorn 91, 108, 134 (111 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 91, 118, 108 (106 avg)

All three of those games against the Hawks were last year and all three were at the MCG. The Qualifying Final where Selwood scored 91 was the only MCG game (other than his round one concussion) that he scored under 100. Problem is that he was tagged by Lewis quite effectively and it could happen again. Still, I'd back him to ton it up rather than get taken out of the game but I don't think he'll be able to score too hugely. Prediction - 110

Mitchell - Requested by picker_man
Last week: 130
Last 3 against Geelong: 67, 110, 114 (97 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 130, 105, 93 (109 avg)

That 67 shouldn't look worrying any more because that was a Pink Pig tag at it's finest and, with Lingy retired, Mitchell may well run free. The lower scores at the MCG were during finals when Mitchell just didn't seem to rack it up as much as during the year (where he had 8/9 games above 110 for an average of 114). If last week is anything to go by, the Cats are more likely to go head to head with Mitchell than to tag him and that could lead to a decent score. Prediction - 120

Watson - Requested by Madsnake
Last week: 110
Last 3 against Port: 116, 107, 110 (111 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 110, 116, 97 (108 avg)

Looking at the numbers above, Jobe seems to be the model of consistency against Port and at Etihad. Well, he is. A few early 130+ scores at Etihad give him slightly more potential to go bang than these numbers say but I wouldn't be backing anything huge. Prediction - 110

Swallow - Requested by m-ry
Last week: 86
Last 3 against GWS: N/A
Last 3 at Hobart: N/A

With no stats against GWS or in Hobart (never played them and never played there), I had to look elsewhere for interesting things. Firstly, the Swans had only two tons against the Giants last week. I wouldn't take much from that though because the Swans were pretty average and they're not known for playing a DT friendly game. The other thing to look at is trying to compare Hobart to Launceston (whether or not that is fair is up to you). In five games at Launceston, Swallow has only scored one ton (a 101 in '09). However, the key midfielder in the better team at Launceston (i.e. Mitchell for basically every game played there) has always dominated. Two years and seven games without dropping below 100 (four games 120+) for Mitchell in Tassie. Whether Swallow can do something the same is something I could only hazard a guess at. I'd say he's not worth the risk with players like Swanny and Pendles in almost every team to pick from (and NDS and Goddard in some). Prediction - a tentative 120

Stanton - Requested by nostradamus
Last week: 153
Last 3 against Port: 98, 102, 125 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 153, 98, 153 (135 avg)

Conversely to Watson, Stanton is the model of inconsistency. Those 153s at Etihad look delicious but that little 98 in between them was against this week's opponent, Port Adelaide. In that game, he was tagged by Salopek. After his amazing performance last week, I wouldn't be surprised if he were tagged again. Obviously, there is potential for a huge score and, with great risk, comes great reward. However, I wouldn't take a gamble on him if I had someone better. The 153 last year was against a struggling Bulldogs where they "attempted" to tag him. Still, if the Salopek tag worked last year (remember the game?? Essendon just came back and won but Port were bloody close), it may work again. Prediction - 105

Buddy - Requested by Torpedo10
Last week: 130
Last 3 against Geelong: 79*, 86, 91 (85 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 57, 100, 79* (79 avg)
*injury affected

That 79 was when Buddy injured his knee in the finals last year. Still, when you see that a player scored no tons against a side in three performances last year, it's worrying. I don't know what it is, but Geelong seem to have Buddy's number. Still, with Scarlett out, their defence will be weakened which is a positive for the excitement machine. I wouldn't expect a dominant performance, considering his history against the Cats, but I reckon he can crack the ton. Prediction - 100

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments!

[hardnut]

It's Scott Thompson 200th, once the Crows ice the game they will look for him at every opportunity. Bring on 130 imho, had him with the C last week and think I'll stick, worth taking some punts early in the year I reckon.

[Ricochet]

What about Jelwood LaHug?

[Adamant]

What about Jelwood LaHug?

+1
am tossing up between GAJ, Jelwood & Goddard for the big C at the moment as I have no Swan or Pendles, Rocky spudded it and Adelaide is Boyd's worst team...

[LaHug]

It's Scott Thompson 200th, once the Crows ice the game they will look for him at every opportunity. Bring on 130 imho, had him with the C last week and think I'll stick, worth taking some punts early in the year I reckon.

Ooh, didn't even notice that! Very good point. Will make a quick edit now!

[LaHug]

What about Jelwood LaHug?

+1
am tossing up between GAJ, Jelwood & Goddard for the big C at the moment as I have no Swan or Pendles, Rocky spudded it and Adelaide is Boyd's worst team...

Will do it first thing when I get up. Bit tired right now ;)

[picker_man]

mind doing mitchell to m8 :)

[Madsnake]

Hey Huggy, reckon you could do a quick one for Watson aswell.. Reckon he could do alright at Etihad against Port.

[danger]

Had Murphy last night as VC. 115 is an awkward score.. Not sure if I'll keep him in or go Thompson or Watson...

[m-ry]

Can you do A. Swallow?

[nostradamus]

l dont have Stanton (wish l did), but l think he could rip port a new one on saturday

[Justin Bieber]

Still sold on Ablett, maybe I'll go Birchall ;D

[nostradamus]

Still sold on Ablett, maybe I'll go Birchall ;D

Luke this mancrush of yours is getting a bit worrying mate

[Justin Bieber]

Still sold on Ablett, maybe I'll go Birchall ;D

Luke this mancrush of yours is getting a bit worrying mate

Just joking mate ;D I'm not that silly... I'm still backing Ablett or Pendles.

[nostradamus]

yeah me too, leaning towards pendles at the moment