c4's 2012 Bargains: Jason Winderlich

[c4v3m4n]

Jason Winderlich



Statistics

2011 Games: 4
2011 Total Score: 223
2011 Average: 55.7
2011 High: 91
2011 Low: 6 (was subbed early in Q1 with ACL injury)
2011 Price: $423,800

2010 Games: 19
2010 Total Score: 1655
2010 Average: 87.1
2010 High: 139
2010 Low: 31
2010 Standard Deviation: 26.42
2010 Centuries: 8 out of 19
2010 Starting Price: $513,700 (was also highest price)
2010 Lowest Price: $372,000 (Round 9)

Summary

Jason Winderlich was one of the first players to go down during Essendon's horror run of injuries; rupturing his anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in Round 4 against Carlton. In his three games prior, he enjoyed mixed fortunes switching between the midfield and the forward line.

Of course, this isn't his first major injury. He suffered a major setback to his career with a prolasped disc in his spine that required multiple surgeries and kept him out for most of the 2008 season. He also had several set-backs in the early start to his career, playing only 30 games in 4 seasons.

Going back to his 2010 season, he was touted as the major 'X-Factor' for Essendon after a career-best season in '09. He become more of a inside ball winning midfielder (rather than a flanker), which helped his contested possession rate, however his efficiency rate suffered. His influence on the scoreboard dipped as well, only kicking 2.12 (compared to 17.8 in '09), however he still enjoyed the same amount of score assists. He also had the 3rd most disposals, 3rd most tackles and was 2nd in clearances from stoppages at the club for season 2010.

This all said, he did start the season off quite slugglishly, averaging only 76.64 SC points in the first half of the season. However, he turned it on in the second-half of the year, averaging 101.5 SC points.

The Crystal Ball

According to m0nty's Fanplanner he is priced at $296,100. This is however NOT taken into account the discount he will most likely receive.

Since he only played 4 games last season, he is eligible for a 10% discount, which will take his price to a intriguing $266,500.

Decision

Jeez, this is a tough one. At $266,500, it's almost worth taking the risk on. But he's never enjoyed a full 22-game season.  :-\ Though he could be a great unique pick as a 4th or 5th midfielder.

For me, it's a 50/50 call. Like always, keep an eye on his pre-season and also take note of where Hirdy will be playing him next year. A return to the flank could help his confidence and also help his SC scoring potential.

Thoughts?

Are you taking the plunge on Jason Winderlich next year? Or is too big of a gamble?

[ossie85]

Hmmm... winders never exactly set the world on fire. Think the game may have passed him? I'd be more likely to select another rookie sorry winders

[Torpedo10]

I agree with ossie. He SC scores will probably fade out coming back from an ACL.

[roo boys!]

Like you c4, he''s probably 50/50 for me. I am usually a risk taker in SC (look where that got me :P), and at that price he's hard to refuse.

[ronl]

Far too risky, even at the price.  End up costing you a trade.

[Torress]

bombers will welcome him back, and i can't see him on the ball at all. will prob find it hard to get into the side round 1 which might put ppl off him in SC. im with ossie id rather a rookie. these mid pricers types drive u nuts during the season.. won't score highly and early enough to be worth it.

[Cookie Monster]

He will be back by round 1, he is ahead of scheduale in his recovery, he might be my 6th back though, but still 50/50 for me.

[Boomz]

Can see him falling away next year coming off an ACL... Good player but won't touch him next year.

[AFEV]

He has a history of injuries, and coming off an ACL I don't see him averaging enough to justify selection. Not this year.

[charliesheen]

short list.   can see him pulling an adcock.

[Torress]

looked at his numbers more closely, might change my mind on him if he shows signs of not slowing down or breaking down!! could be a handy midpricer and has dpp. 305k m/f

[Purple 77]

Just too risky, If i picked him, he would just stick inside my team getting 60's and the occasional 120+, those players are awkward to trade out IMO

[dmac07]

He's on the watchlist but probably not. I will only have 1-2 midprices at the most, maybe none at all. But him and didak are both on a watch for the preseason still.

[Colliwobblers]

no not for me im not brave enough and there are the 3 or 4 great mid priced options in the fwd line already, dearer yes but safer and i wont risk more than 2 midpricers in fwd and def and 1 in mids (barlow).

he is tempting though especially in light of those numbers, nice write up.