LaHug's Captains

[LaHug]

Thinking of doing something like this each week (similar to Calvin's Captains on DT Talk). I'll probably post it on the Dream Team Board in future, but I think posting it here will get the most attention for this week. Please let me know what you think and I'll see if it's worth making it a weekly thing. As requested, I will give a predicted score for each player under the condition that you don't have a go if it's entirely wrong. Remember, it's your Dream Team and it's your decision!

The facts:

Ablett
Last 3: 175, 118, 135 (143 avg)
Last 3 against Sydney: 127, 167, 141 (145 avg)
Last 3 at Metricon: 118, 146, 92 (119 avg)

Mitchell
Last 3: 137, 128, 132 (132 avg)
Last 3 against Brisbane: 105, 132, 86 (108 avg)
Last 3 at Aurora: 132, 129, 129 (130 avg)

Swan
Last 3: 130, 125, 83 (113 avg)
Last 3 against North: 162, 123, 117 (134 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 130, 83, 89 (101 avg)

The thoughts:

Ablett
In amazing form and gave everyone who trusted him with the big C a great score last week. The only thing better than his current form is his form against Sydney. Surely he's in for another big week this week. Can you think of any reason not to captain him? I can't! Would be very surprised if he scored less than 130. Prediction - 140

Mitchell
The only blip I can see is that 86 in his 3rd most recent game against the Lions, but that was in 2008. The Lions are looking a lot more woeful than they were back then and a depleted Hawthorn team isn't slowing Mitchell's scoring. Add to this that he's playing at the sluttiest ground in the DT world and you've got to expect a big on from Sammy. Second only to Ablett this week, expect something around the 130 mark. Prediction - 130

Swan
Swan's averages are affected by his form slump, and yet they're still over 100! That screams consistency from the Great Dane. If you ignore that form patch, Swan kills it at the MCG and will probably do so again. He also loves playing North Melbourne with a career best 162 coming against them this year at Etihad. He looks to be back to his scoring best since returning from Arizona. Expect something over 120 this week. Prediction - 130

The verdict:

1. Ablett (140)
2. Mitchell (130)
3. Swan (130)

If you want me to look at another option, just ask in the comments! Please let me know what you think and whether it's worthwhile.

Requests:

Judd - Requested by Edge
Last 3: 138, 76, 85 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 115, 66, 104 (95 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 76, 85, 112 (91 avg)

Verdict: Judd's scores this year are a bit too rollercoastery for my liking. He's had some big ones and some small ones but only three scores over 120 (138, 133, 123) with a lot of mediocre scores in between. His ceiling doesn't look as high as others and his floor looks a lot lower. Good chance to cop the Picken tag so not captain material by my liking. Prediction - 85

Boyd - Requested by Chelskiman
Last 3: 93, 136, 70 (100 avg)
Last 3 against Carlton: 142, 114, 95 (117 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 93, 70, 143 (102 avg)

Verdict: Boyd used to be the Docklands king but his last two scores suggest otherwise. That 142 against the Blues was last year under the roof. Form against Carlton screams yes. Past form at Etihad screams yes. Recent form and likely at least one week as a disappointing captain says no. Could still be a good choice and that string of 130s is waiting around the corner; I just don't know if it's coming this week against an in form Carlton. Prediction - 110

Pendlebury - Requested by Chelskiman
Last 3: 105, 107, 104 (105 avg)
Last 3 against North: 141, 84, 107 (111 avg)
Last 3 at MCG: 105, 104, 129 (113 avg)

Verdict: Having not dropped under 87 this year, Pendlebury is Mr. Consistent and should never let you down. However, he doesn't seem to have as big a ceiling as names like Swan and Ablett. King of the big games, this probably won't be one of them. However, other than his 166 against the Bombers, his best score of the year comes against North at Etihad with a big 141! That was a high scoring DT game but that seems to be the pattern playing against the Kangas; giving up six tons against the Saints and even two against a lacklustre Port outfit. If you don't have any of the three I listed at the start, Pendlebury looks like a safe bet. Prediction - 120

Goddard - Requested by Spite
Last 3: 130, 56, 119 (102 avg)
Last 3 against Port: 112, 67, 82 (87 avg)
Last 3 at AAMI: 78, 106, 67 (84 avg)

Verdict: A noticeable trend with Goddard's bigger scores is that they have been at Etihad. Sadly, this game is in Adelaide which is not his best ground. Add to that the fact that he's playing his second worst DT team (behind Sydney), this doesn't look like a good game for Goddard. Port have only been giving up a couple of tons per game, so if Joey and NDS ton up, things might not be pretty. This season has been fairly average by Goddard's standards and I don't expect this week to be anything different. Prediction - 80

ROK - Requested by Mr.Craig
Last 3: 100, 113, 88 (100 avg)
Last 3 against GC: N/A
Last 3 at Metricon: N/A

Verdict: Having never played the Gold Coast before, the stats for this one are limited. However, we do know that the Suns are the easiest team to score big against; giving up five scores over 130 in just the last three weeks! Things to think about before choosing ROK as a roughie are that he hasn't scored 120+ at all this season but has scored under 70 three times. It seems that the risk might be greater than the reward. "But surely we can't see a low score from a premium against the Suns?" you ask. See Higgins (57), Swallow (88), Embley (82), Bartel (67), Redden (64), etc. Sure, ROK could score 130+, but he's just as likely to score 70. I think his score is unpredictable and not worth the risk. Good luck to you if you have the balls to pick him! Prediction - unpredictable

Goodes - Requested by Flame
Last 3: 81, 92, 91 (88 avg)
Last 3 against GC: N/A
Last 3 at Metricon: N/A

Verdict: As with ROK, there are no previous stats against the Suns to go by. What we do know is that Goodes has been sub par this year and his form is a lot worse than ROK's. However, he has a higher ceiling than ROK with top scores of 129 and 120 this year, he's a second half specialist and his form is surely going to turn around soon, but he's also had more scores under 80. The trend with the Suns seems to be that some score big and others... well... don't. I would hazard a guess and say that Goodes and ROK will provide one of each but I can't tell you which will be the big. Just as with ROK, I see anything from 130+ to 70. Prediction - unpredictable.

Marc Murphy - Requested by Windigo
Last 3: 97, 120, 129 (115 avg)
Last 3 against Bulldogs: 96, 85, 101 (94 avg)
Last 3 at Etihad: 120, 129, 128 (126 avg)

Verdict: Despite last week's "let down", Marc has been one of the best scorers this year and has done his owners proud. Ignore his scores against the Dogs (even though they're not half bad) because his year has been so different from the past. If we focus on his Etihad scores, only one has been below 120 this season (a 98 against the Saints) so it's safe to say he should be around that mark again. If you ignore his early 69 against Collingwood, he's been very safe and even last week's 97 couldn't have been that big a let down (unless you chose him over Ablett). I'd expect his trend of scores between 120 and 129 at Etihad to continue. Prediction - 125

[Edge]

what about JUDDI

[thanme]

Nice write up!! I like the quick overview of games/vs/ground

[4820]

i like the idea, thanks.

[Memphistopheles]

Swan for me.

I don't fancy Ablett to cause quiate as much destruction against Syd now he's at GC rather than Geelong. I still think he will score big, but I fancy Swan even more against North.

[Flame]

Can't decide between ablett and Swan?

[matt1985]

I'm torn between GAJ and Mitchell! I can't go wrong with both really... But too tough to split the two :(

[Spinking]

While Gablett has proved us all wrong by copping a big tag every week and still churning out monster scores, I reckon the swannies might be better at shutting him down now he hasn't got the Geelong midfield for support.

I reckon Swan is fit and firing after Arizona and should pump out a (C) worthy score.

[Possumo]

Good detailed write up. Like it more than Calvin's captains actually.

[elephants]

I'm going with swan and mitchy vice. Not happy with gazz as he scored big when I VC'd him :P

[LaHug]

Thanks for all of the feedback guys!

what about JUDDI

Edge, I'll have a look at Juddy for you in a sec. Sorry for the late response, I was at basketball.

Just one last question, which thread do you think this would be most suited for in future?

[Fireballz]

You should average the averages! So gabletts last 3 + last 3 at the ground + last 3 vs opposition = 135.7
And use it as a predicted score! But then you're guessing a score you open yourself up to more scrutiny...

Am I a bad person coz I have none of those 3 players?

[elephants]

No ballz you're not a bad person but I have all three hah.
I'm going swan despite him being your third choice lugs.

[PowerBug]

I have GAJ and Swan. Going GAJ.

[LaHug]

You should average the averages! So gabletts last 3 + last 3 at the ground + last 3 vs opposition = 135.7
And use it as a predicted score! But then you're guessing a score you open yourself up to more scrutiny...

I don't want no scrutiny ;)

I'm going swan despite him being your third choice lugs.

Swan seems to be a safe captain choice each week (if you ignore his form slump) but I feel that recent form suggests GAJ and Mitchell are just as safe with higher ceilings. Still, don't let me change your gut feeling, just let me help make up your mind if you're unsure :)