Brownlow Predictions Round 24: Judd to win, but wait there is more

[PowerBug]

Who does the Great Usman say will win the brownlow?

Find out after the break ;)

[PowerBug]

Eat it, trust me it's just as good as original Vegemite.

[The Silent Partner]

Waiting eagerly as always Usman ;)

[madskill55]

After R24 on my votes I have:

judd   29
mitchell   28
pendles   27-28
goodes   25-26
swan   25-26
boyd   25
murphy    22-23
ablett    22
dal santo   20
moloney   20
selwood   19
priddis   19-20
cox    18
thompson   18

After going through a full re-analysis i have come up with readjusted votes:
Players                    Optimum Range          Prediction
Judd                             26-31                      28
Mitchell                          26-30                     28
Pendles                         24-29                      27
Boyd                             21-26                      25
Goodes                          22-26                     24
Swan                            22-26                      24
Murphy                          21-26                     23

It all depends about the Judd/Murphy factor, Swan/Pendles/Daisy Law, can Boyd poll low to mid 20's in an unsuccessful bulldogs outfit as opposed to last year and can Goodes romp it home in the last 6 rounds with an expected 13-15 votes..??? only time will tell ladies and gentlemen....
   

[Usman]

Its finally arrived the end of the Home and Away season. Who will win the Brownlow the left number is the raw votes the right is best and worst case scenario compared to get the mean and then compared with the raw numbers to get the mean of this. The numbers are very high but the order is more important. Because of the high numbers i have strated another count using next years formula that i have been working on this year. the Results i am very happy with so far and will post full results up hopefully within the next week then we will have 3 different phantom polls on this thread thanks to mads, which should be a good gauge


Leaderboard

32 (32) Judd   
29 (29) Mitchell*   
28 (28) Pendlebury   
27 (27) Boyd
26 (26) Murphy   
24 (25) Swan   
24 (24) Ablett
24 (22) Priddis
22 (--) Dal Santo
22 (--) Swallow

Adel
Thompson 20
Vince 6
Dangerfield 4
Van Berlo 4
Sloane 3
Rielly 3
Johncock 1
Knights 1
Douglas 1
Tippett 1


Bris
Black 15
Rockliff 8
Brown 4
Redden 4
Power 3
Lueunberger 2
Clark 2
Rich 1

Carl
Judd 32
Murphy 26
Gibbs 11
Simpson 6
Robinson 6
Walker 4
Scotland 3
Betts 3
Carrazzo 2
Kruezer 2

Coll
Pendelbury 28
Swan 25
Thomas 18
Cloke 9
Davis 5
Beams 5
Blair 4
Sidebottom 3
Shaw 3
Wellingham 3
Ball 3
Krakour 2
Dawes 1
Fasolo 1

Ess
Watson 20
Hocking 6
Stanton 6
Zaharakis 4
Monfries 4
Reimers 3
Melksham 3
Howlett 2
Myers 2
Bellchambers 2
Hille 1
Crameri 1
Lonergan 1
Ryder 1
Mcveigh 1

Fre
Fyfe 15
Pavlich 13
Lower 5
Sandilands 4
Mundy 3
Ballantyne 2
Griffin 2
Mzungu 2
Mcpharlin 1
Broughton 1
Barlow 1
Johnson 1

Geel
Selwood 19
Johnson 12
Bartel 9
Corey 9
Chapman 9
Kelly 7
Enright 6
Podsiadly 6
Stokes 5
Christensen 5
Ling 2
Ottens 2
Menzel 2
Wojcinski 1

GC
Ablett 24
Rischitelli 8
Brennan 5
Swallow 1
Iles 1

Haw
Mitchell 29
Franklin 15
Hodge 12
Sewell 8
Rioli 7
Lewis 6
Savage 3
Suckling 3
Guerra 3
Birchall 3
Burgouyne 2
Shiels 3
Hale 1
Puopolo 1
Whitecross 2
Bruce 1

Kang
Swallow 22
Wells 12
Ziebell 9
Petrie 8
Goldstien 7
Harvey 9
Rawlings 1
Edwards 1
Bastinac 1
Pederson 1
Thomas 1

Melb
Moloney 20
Sylvia 7
Trengove 4
Martin 4
Green 4
Pettard 3
Jamar 3
McKenzie 3
Watts 3
Maric 1

Port
Brogan 4
Gray 4
Westoff 4
Schulz 3
Boak 3
Ebert 2
Hartlett 1
Cassisi 1

Rich
Cotchin 17
Martin 15
Foley 6
Deledio 6
Newman 2
Nahas 2
Houli 2
Riewoldt 1
Tuck 1

StK
Dal Santo 22
Montagna 14
Goddard 8
Milne 6
Riewoldt 5
Schnieder 3
Hayes 2
Armitage 1
Mcevoy 1
Koschitzke 1

Syd
Goodes 20
Okeefe 14
Bolton 13
Kennedy 10
Mumford 8
Seaby 3
Mcveigh 3
Mcglynn 3
Jack 2

WB
Boyd 27
Griffen 15
Ward 4
Gian 4
Higgins 3
Cooney 3
Hall 2
Gilbee 1
Tutt 1

WCE
Priddis 24
Cox 19
Shuey 9
Embley 7
Kerr 6
Kennedy 6
Lecras 5
Masten 4
Natanui 3
Lynch 3
Hurn 2
Rosa 1
Gaff 1

[c4v3m4n]

Great job Usman!  :D

Especially with the full club-by-club rundown.

Poor Port Adelaide....  ;)

[LaHug]

I'm about to go to bed so I can't be bothered getting a calculator out, but it'd be interesting to see the total number of votes polled for each club and rank them 1-17.

[Usman]

I'm about to go to bed so I can't be bothered getting a calculator out, but it'd be interesting to see the total number of votes polled for each club and rank them 1-17.

Sorry i have that should have added them in. Results are as follows:

110 Collingwood
98 Hawthorn
94 Geelong
94 Carlton
90 WCE
76 Sydney
73 Kangaroos
70 WB
63 St Kilda
57 Essendon
52 Richmond
52 Melbourne
50 Fremantle
44 Adel
39 Brisbane
39 Gold Coast
22 Port Adelaide

[2 large cokes]

that kinda shows geelong might deserve a few more votes and maybe Carlton have been given a few to many? possibly saints have been overlooked a bit aswell and that port are just in a league of there own :p

[plugz19]

just like like to say a big thanks to usman and madskill for the work you guys have done this year, been an interesting read all year long!
cheers guys :)

[Pup2011]

Thompson will finish top 3. Get on him.

[PowerBug]

Priddi will finish top 1. Get on him :P

[MTTY]

Here are the results of the top 10 for my brownlow count

Brownlow - Scott Pendlebury - 27
2nd - Marc Murphy & Matthew Boyd - 26
4th - Chris Judd - 25
5th - Adam Goodes - 24
6th - Sam Mitchell - 23
7th - Dane Swan - 21
8th - Dean Cox & Nick Dal Santo - 20
10th - Brent Moloney, Scott Thompson, Lance Franklin & Matthew Priddis - 19

[Justin Bieber]

I always root for Boyd and will continue to do so 8).

Awesome stuff Usman and others for the brownlow count round by round. It'll certainly be interesting to see how it stands up to the umps opinions.

[upthemaidens]

just going over some of the odds and leader after rd.12  looks like some good value, if using usman's scoring.
  pendles at $9.00 at centrebet
    and at $7.00 at tab       seems to be to good a bet to overlook