Brownlow Predictions Round 24: Judd to win, but wait there is more

[Usman]

I have been waiting for someone to challenge me. Finally. This is how i see it, particularly hard game this one with judd collecting 16 disposals in the second half and Murphy and Yarran playing very well also. when i cant pick i go purely on my scoring system and this is the votes it spat out i have changed votes mid week before on occasions when voting is particularly hard to decide like this game, i probably didnt consider the impact 4 goals have on a low scoring game.

Swallow 33   disposals
              1 Goal
              9    Tackles
              9    clearences
            15    Contesed Posessions
              5 Inside 50's
           175 points

Simpson 24 disposals
             2 Behinds
             2   contested marks
             3   Tackles
             2   Clearences
             10 Contested Posessions
             10 inside 50's
            126 Points

Gibbs     20 disposals
              4 Goals
              2 behinds
              9 tackles
              6 Contested posessions
              4 inside 50's
            124 Points

             

[Usman]

ok thought id do an analysis on the season so far like i mentioned before:

Best 3 game streak: N. Dal Santo (Rd's 15-17) & D. Thomas (Rd's 9-11) 8 votes

Best 5 game streak: N. Dal Santo 13 votes (Rd's 15-19)

Best 10 game streak: S. Mitchell 19 votes (Rd's 11-19)

Best from Rd's:
1-5: C. Judd & J. Watson 10 votes
6-10: J. Selwood 9 votes
11-15: Mitchell 10 votes
16-19: Dal Santo 10 votes

Best first 10 rounds: C. Judd 17 votes

Best second 10 rounds (9 so far): S. Mitchell 19 votes

Most Games Polling: C. Judd (26 votes) & S. Pendlebury (25 votes) 12

Most 3's: C. Judd (26 votes) & S. Mitchell (26 votes) 6

Most 2's: M. Murphy (23 votes) 8

Most 1's: D. Cox (17 votes) 5

[madskill55]

I have been waiting for someone to challenge me. Finally. This is how i see it, particularly hard game this one with judd collecting 16 disposals in the second half and Murphy and Yarran playing very well also. when i cant pick i go purely on my scoring system and this is the votes it spat out i have changed votes mid week before on occasions when voting is particularly hard to decide like this game, i probably didnt consider the impact 4 goals have on a low scoring game.

Swallow 33   disposals
              1 Goal
              9    Tackles
              9    clearences
            15    Contesed Posessions
              5 Inside 50's
           175 points

Simpson 24 disposals
             2 Behinds
             2   contested marks
             3   Tackles
             2   Clearences
             10 Contested Posessions
             10 inside 50's
            126 Points

Gibbs     20 disposals
              4 Goals
              2 behinds
              9 tackles
              6 Contested posessions
              4 inside 50's
            124 Points

             

Gibbs 4 goal impact in a low scoring game has not been taken into consideration. Statistically once could say if Gibbs did not play we would have lost as Walker, and out entire forward line was playing like crap and would not kick a winning score if gibbsy didnt contribute but thereoretically it may have been a completely different ball game if Bryce didnt play, but we'll never know.

A player can have 35disposals, 5 tackles 5 inside 50's 5 clearances but if his 35 posessions were all ineffective and did not make a "superstar-impact on the game" then it doesn't count..35 disposals verses a 4.2 goal performance very very hard. Im not saying swallow wont get the 3 votes, I'm just sayin Bryce Gibbs will more certainly poll at least 2 votes in the game..If he doesn't poll 2, the brownlow is rigged just like when the Blues got pumelled by the Pies last year and Judd got the 3 votes. Im a blues supporter, call me biased or whatever you want, but theres no way he deserved 3 votes in a smashing, its cause of the Chris Judd factor which sort of makes these medals sort of biased/unfair in a way if you ask me...

[Usman]

Gibbs 4 goal impact in a low scoring game has not been taken into consideration. Statistically once could say if Gibbs did not play we would have lost as Walker, and out entire forward line was playing like crap and would not kick a winning score if gibbsy didnt contribute but thereoretically it may have been a completely different ball game if Bryce didnt play, but we'll never know.

A player can have 35disposals, 5 tackles 5 inside 50's 5 clearances but if his 35 posessions were all ineffective and did not make a "superstar-impact on the game" then it doesn't count..35 disposals verses a 4.2 goal performance very very hard. Im not saying swallow wont get the 3 votes, I'm just sayin Bryce Gibbs will more certainly poll at least 2 votes in the game..If he doesn't poll 2, the brownlow is rigged just like when the Blues got pumelled by the Pies last year and Judd got the 3 votes. Im a blues supporter, call me biased or whatever you want, but theres no way he deserved 3 votes in a smashing, its cause of the Chris Judd factor which sort of makes these medals sort of biased/unfair in a way if you ask me...

I have since changed my votes to Swallow 3 Gibbs 2 Simpson 1 and fully agree he deserves the 2 as i watched the game and he was sensational. but i flew through my votes for the last 2 weeks and didnt double check before i posted to see if the all looked good.

However, it is not fair to say Judd did not deserve 3 votes because it was in a smashing. Just because Carlton lost the game doesnt mean Judd wasnt Best on Ground Lets not forget Judd had 37 touches in that game (6 more than any other player) aswell as 18 contested possessions (4 more than any other player) 11 Clearances (4 more than any other player) and 10 inside 50's (4 more than any pther player) this is one man beating every other player on the field in all those areas and he doesnt deserve the 3?? stupidly i put Swan down as the 3 because Collingwood won by so much, but you look back on my scoring and think how could i do that. Judd scored 195 and Swan 147 thats a huge differece and i think Judd fully deserved the 3 against Collingwood last year but i put down Swan for the 3 purley beacause they won. MISTAKE.

[PowerBug]

Personal Opinion. I believe that that the three brownlow votes should go to the person that won the game for that side. So although Judd got all that ball, did he do enough to even get carlton cclose to winning the game, no. Therefore heshouldn't get the three votes because he didn't turn the game in his favour.

[Usman]

Personal Opinion. I believe that that the three brownlow votes should go to the person that won the game for that side. So although Judd got all that ball, did he do enough to even get carlton cclose to winning the game, no. Therefore heshouldn't get the three votes because he didn't turn the game in his favour.

its a team sport though and Judds team was not good enough to get close not Judd himself. One player cannot win/lose a game for his team as much as that cliche' is used in the media

[korza]

@ Usman

As a huge fan and beleiver of this thread, i have in the last 8 weeks parted way with the little coin i have on the brownlow market. If all goes well following is the returns i will be getting.

Judd Pendles quinella = $ 325.
Judd win  = $494
Judd v Pendles  h2h @ evens with a freind = $50.
If they hit pm me with an address and a bottle of Johnny black on it's way.


KORZA

[Usman]

Judd Pendles quinella = $ 325.
Judd win  = $494
Judd v Pendles  h2h @ evens with a freind = $50.
If they hit pm me with an address and a bottle of Johnny black on it's way.

Oh God feeling the pressure now. haha

BUT quality bets. if there are 2 players that i am most confident on it is them 2. GOOD LUCK and thankyou.

[madskill55]

Round 18
StK v Adel
3   Milne
2   Dal Santo
1   Schnieder

BL v Kang   
3   Black
2   Bastinac
1   Petrie
   
Syd v WB   
3   Goodes
2   Jack
1   Bird
   
Coll v GC
3   Pendlebury
2   Ball
1   Ablett

Carl v Ess   
3   Judd
2   Betts
1   Murphy
   
Geel v Rich   
3   Christensen
2   Cotchin
1   Scarlett
   
Haw v Melb   
3   Sewell
2   Mitchell
1   Franklin

WCE v Fre   
3   Cox
2   Shuey
1   Barlow


Round 19
Kang v Carl
3   Gibbs
2   Swallow
1   Yarran
   
WCE v WB   
3   Cox
2   Boyd
1   Priddis
   
Geel v Melb
3   Johnson
2   Selwood
1   Corey
   
Haw v Fre
3   Mitchell
2   Sewell
1   Fyfe
   
StK v GC
3   Dal Santo
2   Goddard
1   Ablett
   
Coll v Ess
3   Swan
2   Pendlebury
1   Fasolo
   
Adel v Port
3   Vince
2   Van Berlo
1   Sloane

Leaderboard

25 Pendlebury
23-24 Judd
23-24 Mitchell*
19-20 Murphy
19 Ablett
18-19 Boyd
18-19 Cox
17-18 Selwood*
16-17Goodes
16 Priddis
16 Dal Santo

*Denotes ineligable

[madskill55]

Its come to that time of the year, of the early stage betting if you have not done so already.... if you want to chuck a quick bet down now is the time to do so...With Usman delivering his brownlow scoring on his very effective scoring system and also with another resource in my votes as well, you can gage a sense of different opinions and with the similairities and differences noted, one can make a good bet if they can see it...

Korza those are some good bets, what betting agency did u use?

With carlton having one more bye, hawthorn having a easy run home and pendles and swan will be stroking votes from each other it will be a nail biting finish...I don't think team most votes are up yet, but if you want to get on before this weekend starts the bet of the week is for Pendlebury to place in this years brownlow @2.50...Reasons why: He polled well last year with 21 votes and with swan down in form early on in the season, only daisy can take votes from him...Its how he finishes the season of that will determine everything but by then his odds would have shortened. Chris Judd is in ripping form but the question is marc murphy steped up into an elite class of midfielders this year and will he steal votes from chris judd, or will he always settled behind Judd for the 2 votes? He only polled 5 votes last year but has a much better season this year...Get on Pendles before it's too late thats what i say...

Aside from that does anybody know, Usman ossie 85, korza anyone... to bet on someone to get place such as pendlebury, does an ineligible player include in the placings? For example i put $100 on pendles to place but at the end of round 24 the brownlow leaderboard stands at lets say Judd, Mitchell, Murphy and Pendlebury...Since Mitchell is ineligible do i still win my bet or not as place is top 3?

[korza]

@ Madskill

For example i put $100 on pendles to place but at the end of round 24 the brownlow leaderboard stands at lets say Judd, Mitchell, Murphy and Pendlebury...Since Mitchell is ineligible do i still win my bet or not as place is top 3?

Collect my freind.

[Usman]

In other words go do that bet  ;)  ;D

[Zarts]

Jumping in a bit late, but personally, I dislike how the brownlow votes (generally) go to the members of the winning team- it's not a team medal, or team competition, so if someone in a poor team that g ets smashed by 100 points plays a blinder and basically carries their team preventing a meblourne style loss of last week, then they deserve the 3 if they out played others on the winning team.

[Usman]

Jumping in a bit late, but personally, I dislike how the brownlow votes (generally) go to the members of the winning team- it's not a team medal, or team competition, so if someone in a poor team that g ets smashed by 100 points plays a blinder and basically carries their team preventing a meblourne style loss of last week, then they deserve the 3 if they out played others on the winning team.

Agreed. Footy is a team sort but the brownlow is based on individual brilliance only. The best player no matter what the result should get the 3

I havnt done an analysis (i will soon from last years resuts) but quite a bit the umps dont give the three to a player from the winning team and thats the way it should be. if they think someone from a losing team was slightly better than a player from the winning team they should get the 3

[Hippo]

Ok bored at work!!!!

Crutched some odds last night (centrebet have most team votes up but can't multi and last year TAb were pretty much the same odds but allow the multis)

Players and teams where its too hard too call at the moment and could go either way i believe (but thats were value lyes):

Fyfe/Pavlich... this one i have no idea

Martin/Cotchin... reckon Martin

Swallow/Wells/Goldstein... remaining 5 games should give better sight here

Port Adelaide... stay well away!!!!!

Okeefe/Goodes... cmon Goodes finsish the yr off strong like you always do

Priddis/cox.... Def hedge your bets here!


Now the players i believe are the locks so far (and odds seem to reflect this):

Boyd can't lose
Dal Santo his too lose but Goddard would have to kill the rest of the year
Moloney can't lose
Mitchell can't lose
Selwood pretty much safe, would have to have shot games and Johnson wouls have to tear it apart
Watson Watch Zakaharas but i would say Watson is a lock
Pendles his to lose, but if that was the case it would be very obv to the punter
Judd mmmmm, prob last lock this one only because of the Murphy factor (again in 5 rds would know for sure)
Black just keep same form up and will have it, again this should be obv with only 5 rds left
Thompson can't lose

theres a 10 max leg multi right there and the odds for this atm if you could multi is 33/1

i reckon i would lay quite a bit on that! need to out do last years effort ;)