Junktimer's take: FWD: Guns and Premiums

[Junktimer]

Hello all, I'm gonna give my thoughts on what forward's guns and premiums amongst supercoaches should look this year.
PLEASE NOTE: All prices are based on m0nty's fanplanner.

OVERVIEW
This year in forwards as always we have our guns, and also this year there are quite a few premiums at a tasty price.  Popular guns this year will include Nick Riewoldt and Lance Franklin, and many teams will have premiums Cyril Rioli and Brad Green.

STRUCTURE  
This year in the midfield I will probably go with a modest 5/1/0/4.  The reason I am likely to go this structure is because I don't think there are many good mid price options to be chosen.  However, there is a case to save money and go more economical.

GUNS
My definition of guns are players who averaged more than 105 last year, these guys are your rock, you know they are going to be worth every cent.

Paul Chapman- $588,800
Those who picked him this year could be described as happy chappies.  Chapman had a sensational year this year, averaging 116 and playing 21 out of 22 games.  His "inevitable" hamstring injury never really came.  Nearly all Geelong premium midfielders roles this year is an unknown investment because how will they go without Ablett?  I reckon Chappy will come through, MPP is handy.  On the short list for mine.

Nick Riewoldt- $550,800
Nick Riewoldt is one of the biggest locks for SCers going into 2011.  Was likely to have his best ever season before he tore his hamstring early in the season.  Out of the 11 games he played this season, he scored 7 tons, with 3 scores above 160.  In the games where he didn't ton up he went through great adversity, getting injured in one of them and playing 2 of them very undone.  Is actually very durable.  Lock him in.

Lance Franklin- $543,500
Buddy boy has had a very solid year, averaging a career best 107.4 supercoach points a game, even more than 2008 where he kicked 100 goals!  Due to the inclusion of Hale, and Roughead to stay forward, Buddy boy is likely to play quite a bit of midfield time, this will probably be slightly detrimental to his supercoach scoring, he will still deliver, because, quite simply, he's Buddy.  Short list him.

PREMIUMS
Premiums are also ones you can normally bank on, whilst not as reliable as the aforementioned guns, they are a cheaper option and are imperative to all sides.  Premiums to me are those that average 90 to 105.  Below I will list those who will/should be considered.

Alan Didak- $524,200
Didak in the last few years has turned himself from a germ-like forward pocket into a consistent, balanced half forward.  Has high scoring potential, and playing in a great side always helps.  Is an MPP, (MID/FWD), and for this reason, will only really consider picking him as a forward.  Short list.

Brent Harvey- $507,500
Boomer has been a good consistent performer this year.  The 32-year old champ is definitely getting on, but he still looks classy as ever.  Still an MPP, so he should only really be considered as a forward.  Possible upgrade target.

Matty Pavlich- $502,300
In the last two years the Pav has averaged 12 shy of his first 4 years of SC averages.  I struggle to see why.  Especially this year as the Dockers got better and better.  For whatever reason, he is quite cheap for somebody of his calibre, if he could recapture his 08 form, he could be an absolute bargain.  Short list only as a forward.

Jonathan Brown- $494,000
Jono Brown is one of the most explosive scorers in the competition.  In round 6, he had scored 102 Supercoach points in the first half, though he finished with"only" 143, he played a great game.  Out of the 16 games he played this year, he only scored 6 tons, but not one of those tons was below 130.  Battled injuries during the whole of 2010.  If he can get his body right come pre season, I'd short list him.

Brad Green- $488,200
For a premium, Brad Green surprised me when I saw only 9 centuries to his name.  This suggests, along with some poor scores that he is quite inconsistent, and while he kicks plenty of goals and takes contested marks.  I would be more inclined to take somebody younger and more consistent.  Unlikely.

Cyril Rioli- $479,100
After an inconsistent first half of the year, Delicious had a brilliant second half of the year, scoring 6 out of 9 centuries, with a low score of 80.  He showed that he has developed consistency and the fact that he had found a new role off half forward.  Shows endless potential, short list him.

Adam Goodes- $477,000
The Adam Goodes of 2010 was a shadow of the Goodsey that we have come to know and love.  Scores of 16, 27 and 62 are the reasons why he went gun to premium this year.  While he can pull out the corker, he was way too inconsistent for my liking this year.  Average a full 20 ppg less than 09, and hopefully he can retake some of that form in 2011.  At this stage, unlikely.

Dale Thomas- $476,300
2010 was Daisy's breakout year, increasing on his 2009 average by 20 point per game.  What surprised me, however was out of 22 games, he scored only 6 centuries.  At a price like that, I'd like a lot more than that.  However, I think he will only improve, especially because of how strong the Pies team is.  50/50.

Daniel Giansiracusa- $469,400
Daniel Giansiracusa is one of those roller coaster players who never seems to have a middle game.  150 one week, 50 the next.  With a standard deviation of 32.48, and 9 scores under 71, this is exactly what i am talking about.  Despite this, he still managed 10 tons.  Bit too inconsistent for my liking, unlikely.

Jack Riewoldt- $467,100
J-Roo has had a massive breakout year, averaging 92, when his next highest yearly average was a modest 70.  Despite his coleman winning year, he was a very inconsistent scorer, as most Full Forwards are.  A standard deviation of 43.4 is quite worrying.  However he got 8 tons and 3 scores above 140, including the unforgettable 217 against West Coast, drilling 10 goals.  Unlikely.

James Podsiadly- $464,400
The J-Pod was a brilliant cash cow for coaches in 2010, however, he will not be of the same value for coaches next year.  Has the ability to notch up some very big scores, but his inability to play at the G and his inconsistency (SD of 40) is a persuasive factor for me in not picking him.  Would need a miracle.

Travis Cloke- $458,700
Trav Cloke's average of 91 saw him plunge into premium status for the first time in his career.  His 6 tons and scoring potential he showed will tempt some into choosing him next year.  I am not so sure however, as I think there are better Collingwood options, and he is not very consistent (much like most forwards I guess), unlikely for me.

Ryan O'Keefe- $457,500
ROK, by his standards, has had a relatively poor year.  His average of 90 was actually a career low.  I did not like ROK's year at all personally, he was in and out of games, and he played too many stinkers for my liking.  Turned into a tagger late in the year, making his selection for next year even less likely for me.  Very unlikely.

[pyronerd]

i sounds like a broken record, but again a fantastic writeup JT  :) very informative and gives great insight into premium forwards should help me a lot, keep up the great work  ;D

[Justin Bieber]

Nice write up JT.

A few I've got my eye on. Likely to have 3-5 of the lot you just mentioned :P.

[Junktimer]

thanks again pyro and HP

yeah there are a few worth considering, few no go zones too IMO o'keefe ???

[Justin Bieber]

Only if he continues Tagging. I hope he doesn't as they already have 2-3 other guys who are capable of tagging ::).

[pyronerd]

thanks again pyro and HP

yeah there are a few worth considering, few no go zones too IMO o'keefe ???

yes a likely tagging role makes him a no go zone for me as well, i was surprised that he had his lowest averaging year in his career though  :o

[Junktimer]

exactly,  but they have lost kirky...

[maanco]

loving your work! thanks!

what are your thoughts on Colin Sylvia?

[Junktimer]

thanks maanco.

yeah i think sylvia is a bit of risk, for a lot of reward.  if he can string some consistency together, look out!

[LiveTheDream]

This year in the midfield I will probably go with a modest 5/1/0/4. 

How very modest JT haha! Great write up as usual mate, always look forward to reading these.

I'd agree that 5 premium forwards seems the way to go. I got burned last year by spending big on the forwards but had too many mid-pricers, definitely would advise going top heavy. I had two blokes last year that ill never go near again:

Gia - although he had a career best average this year, the man still managed to give me sleepless nights. He always goes missing in the crucial times. Generally had one massive score to make you keep the faith, and then backed it up with two duds.

ROK - Started well as usual and I thought i'd backed a winner, then proceeded to lose over 200k and got to the stage where I lost patience with him and decided to play my man Phil Davis over him.....with better results! Seems to be swapping places with Kieran Jack as the run-with man so would need an absolute miracle for me to even consider him.

[Junktimer]

thanks ltd, yeah those guys are just so inconsistent

[Wilkopolis]

Have to agree with the sentiments here regarding O'Keefe - I got megaburned with this guy as the replacement for Riewoldt.  Think the assessment of Goodes is a little rough.  Once he started playing more through the middle later in the season he was a great pickup leading into the finals.  If this trend continues in 2011 then he is my second lock behind Riewoldt.

[Junktimer]

i had them both.  i got mega mega burned.

[LiveTheDream]

Think the assessment of Goodes is a little rough.  Once he started playing more through the middle later in the season he was a great pickup leading into the finals.  If this trend continues in 2011 then he is my second lock behind Riewoldt.

100% agree with you there mate

[mophead222]

who are good bargain price fowards who will play games? besides darling, hooper